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\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

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Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

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\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 … 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Earnings Gain And S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Gain And S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Gain And S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Growing doubts that the Federal Reserve<\/a> will be less dovish than investors had hoped pushed Treasury yields higher, while investors wait for another round of earnings reports to gauge the health of the economy. Electric vehicle maker Tesla is scheduled to report results after Wednesday's closing bell, along with other major names like T-Mobile US, IBM, ServiceNow, and O'Reilly Automotive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Gain And S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

U.S. equity indexes declined on Wednesday, as risk-off sentiment spread across most sectors, driven by continued gains in government bond yields. U.S. Treasury yields climbed throughout the day, with the 10-year yield rising by two basis points to 4.23%, marking its highest level since late July. The two-year yield also gained 2.8 basis points, reaching 4.07%, its highest since mid-August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growing doubts that the Federal Reserve<\/a> will be less dovish than investors had hoped pushed Treasury yields higher, while investors wait for another round of earnings reports to gauge the health of the economy. Electric vehicle maker Tesla is scheduled to report results after Wednesday's closing bell, along with other major names like T-Mobile US, IBM, ServiceNow, and O'Reilly Automotive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Gain And S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19009,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-06 16:48:39","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:39","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes were choppy in volatile trading on Thursday, as investors remained cautious ahead of a crucial labor report released on Friday. Investor confidence is usually influenced by labor market health and a solid report boosts optimism about future economic growth, leading to potential stock market gains. Conversely, disappointing job data can trigger sales, raising concerns about the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The latest estimates suggest the U.S. economy is expected to add 140,000 jobs in September, slightly down from the 142,000 added in August. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.2%. It is also important to say that average hourly earnings are expected to rise by 3.8% for the second straight month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

These estimates are certainly positive but some analysts think that a strong labor market could prompt the Federal Reserve to stay aggressive in its fight against inflation, as the central bank has noted that if the economy stays robust and inflation remains high, it may slow down its pace of easing monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

FOMC Restrictive Policy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

According to them, a positive development may generate a bearish reaction for Wall Street as it curbs speculation for another 50bp Fed rate cut, but a weaker-than-expected job report may produce optimism for stocks as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)<\/a> starts to unwind its restrictive policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Negative information is that U.S. initial jobless claims increased to 225,000 for the week ending Sept. 28, up from a revised 219,000 the previous week, slightly above the 221,000 expected in a Bloomberg survey. However, the four-week moving average dropped by 750 to 224,250, marking its third consecutive decline and the seventh in the last eight weeks, indicating continued improvement in the labor market. Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Overall, the claims data are consistent with a labor market that has cooled but is still relatively healthy. Recent comments from Fed Chair Powell are consistent with our view that it's still a close call whether the Fed will lower rates by 25bps or 50bps at the November meeting.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tensions in the Middle East escalated on Thursday, also capturing the attention of investors. Israel launched airstrikes on Beirut, while Hezbollah reportedly attacked Israeli forces, according to media reports. At the same time, concerns are mounting over how Israel will respond to an Iranian missile barrage, with fears of a potential retaliatory strike targeting the region\u2019s critical oil infrastructure.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-job-report-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-06 16:48:47","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-06 05:48:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19009","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18657,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-14 20:53:01","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:01","post_content":"\n

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.2% in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rise follows a flat reading in July and outpaced the 0.1% gain that Bloomberg\u2019s survey had predicted. It is also important to mention that excluding food and energy prices, the core PPI climbed 0.3%, above the 0.2% gain expected and a 0.2% decline in the previous month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On a yearly basis, the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 1.7% in August, down from 2.1% in July. However, when excluding just food and energy, the PPI ticked up slightly to 2.4% from 2.3%. Meanwhile, the PPI excluding food, energy, and trade services saw a modest increase to 3.3%, up from 3.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hotter-than-expected read on the PPI coupled with Wednesday's hotter read on the core CPI, thanks to a larger increase in shelter and airline fares, underscores the Federal Open Market Committee's lingering focus on inflation, according to a research company Stifel note Thursday. Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza said<\/a> in the note:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While continuing a disinflationary trend and supporting the Fed's intentions to open the door to rate cuts in less than one week's time, the ongoing uncertainty and unevenness in price growth reinforces the need for a slow and tempered approach to policy adjustment as the data continue to evolve.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>DeFiChain Forms Technical Committee to Further Decentralize the Consensus Code Governance<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Open Market Committee Policy <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its policy decision on September 18 but as of Thursday afternoon, the chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut plummeted to 13%, down from 40% just a week ago, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the probability of a 25 basis point cut has risen to 87%, up from 60% a week prior.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the weeks ahead, the Federal Reserve's policy decisions will be crucial for investors but corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other economic news, initial jobless claims in the US increased to 230,000 for the week ending September 7, up from a revised 228,000 the previous week. This was higher than the 227,000 decrease that analysts had expected, according to a Bloomberg survey.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The US Producer Price Index Rises 0.2% In August","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-us-producer-price-index-rises-0-2-in-august","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-14 20:53:05","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-14 10:53:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18657","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Stanko Illiev

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