\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 4 5 6 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 4 5 6 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3 4 5 6 9

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n
\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

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\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Follow The Distributed

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\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

In their latest report on equity client flows, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said that the previous week saw the largest influx of U.S. equity investments in seven weeks, along with the most substantial private client inflows in over a year. Jill Carey Hall added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Simultaneously, approximately 80% of earnings reports are surpassing analysts' expectations. With results available from nearly half of the S&P 500 companies, including major tech-related firms, overall earnings are projected to have risen by 7.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their latest report on equity client flows, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said that the previous week saw the largest influx of U.S. equity investments in seven weeks, along with the most substantial private client inflows in over a year. Jill Carey Hall added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Bullish sentiment has reached an \"unusually high level,\"<\/em> surpassing its historical average of 37.5% for the 13th consecutive week. The last time optimism was higher was on December 21, 2023, at 52.9%. On the other side, bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 24.5%. This sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the 13th consecutive week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, approximately 80% of earnings reports are surpassing analysts' expectations. With results available from nearly half of the S&P 500 companies, including major tech-related firms, overall earnings are projected to have risen by 7.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their latest report on equity client flows, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said that the previous week saw the largest influx of U.S. equity investments in seven weeks, along with the most substantial private client inflows in over a year. Jill Carey Hall added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Positive information is that the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed that optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks surged again. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 9.8 percentage points to 49.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish sentiment has reached an \"unusually high level,\"<\/em> surpassing its historical average of 37.5% for the 13th consecutive week. The last time optimism was higher was on December 21, 2023, at 52.9%. On the other side, bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 24.5%. This sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the 13th consecutive week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, approximately 80% of earnings reports are surpassing analysts' expectations. With results available from nearly half of the S&P 500 companies, including major tech-related firms, overall earnings are projected to have risen by 7.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their latest report on equity client flows, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said that the previous week saw the largest influx of U.S. equity investments in seven weeks, along with the most substantial private client inflows in over a year. Jill Carey Hall added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

AAII Sentiment Survey<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed that optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks surged again. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 9.8 percentage points to 49.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish sentiment has reached an \"unusually high level,\"<\/em> surpassing its historical average of 37.5% for the 13th consecutive week. The last time optimism was higher was on December 21, 2023, at 52.9%. On the other side, bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 24.5%. This sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the 13th consecutive week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, approximately 80% of earnings reports are surpassing analysts' expectations. With results available from nearly half of the S&P 500 companies, including major tech-related firms, overall earnings are projected to have risen by 7.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their latest report on equity client flows, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said that the previous week saw the largest influx of U.S. equity investments in seven weeks, along with the most substantial private client inflows in over a year. Jill Carey Hall added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AAII Sentiment Survey<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed that optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks surged again. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 9.8 percentage points to 49.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish sentiment has reached an \"unusually high level,\"<\/em> surpassing its historical average of 37.5% for the 13th consecutive week. The last time optimism was higher was on December 21, 2023, at 52.9%. On the other side, bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 24.5%. This sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the 13th consecutive week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, approximately 80% of earnings reports are surpassing analysts' expectations. With results available from nearly half of the S&P 500 companies, including major tech-related firms, overall earnings are projected to have risen by 7.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their latest report on equity client flows, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said that the previous week saw the largest influx of U.S. equity investments in seven weeks, along with the most substantial private client inflows in over a year. Jill Carey Hall added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"The strong jobs report indicates that demand in the labor market is higher than expected. While lower interest rates would surely be welcomed, it is becoming increasingly clear that markets and the economy are coping well with the high rate environment, so policymakers are perhaps feeling that the need for monetary policy to ease is less urgent.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AAII Sentiment Survey<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed that optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks surged again. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 9.8 percentage points to 49.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish sentiment has reached an \"unusually high level,\"<\/em> surpassing its historical average of 37.5% for the 13th consecutive week. The last time optimism was higher was on December 21, 2023, at 52.9%. On the other side, bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 24.5%. This sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the 13th consecutive week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, approximately 80% of earnings reports are surpassing analysts' expectations. With results available from nearly half of the S&P 500 companies, including major tech-related firms, overall earnings are projected to have risen by 7.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their latest report on equity client flows, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said that the previous week saw the largest influx of U.S. equity investments in seven weeks, along with the most substantial private client inflows in over a year. Jill Carey Hall added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

In January, job growth in the U.S. picked up pace, and wages saw their most significant increase in nearly two years. These are indications of enduring strength in the labor market, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's plans to begin cutting interest rates in May. Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The strong jobs report indicates that demand in the labor market is higher than expected. While lower interest rates would surely be welcomed, it is becoming increasingly clear that markets and the economy are coping well with the high rate environment, so policymakers are perhaps feeling that the need for monetary policy to ease is less urgent.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AAII Sentiment Survey<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed that optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks surged again. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 9.8 percentage points to 49.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish sentiment has reached an \"unusually high level,\"<\/em> surpassing its historical average of 37.5% for the 13th consecutive week. The last time optimism was higher was on December 21, 2023, at 52.9%. On the other side, bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 24.5%. This sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the 13th consecutive week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, approximately 80% of earnings reports are surpassing analysts' expectations. With results available from nearly half of the S&P 500 companies, including major tech-related firms, overall earnings are projected to have risen by 7.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their latest report on equity client flows, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said that the previous week saw the largest influx of U.S. equity investments in seven weeks, along with the most substantial private client inflows in over a year. Jill Carey Hall added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n
\"\"
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In January, job growth in the U.S. picked up pace, and wages saw their most significant increase in nearly two years. These are indications of enduring strength in the labor market, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's plans to begin cutting interest rates in May. Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The strong jobs report indicates that demand in the labor market is higher than expected. While lower interest rates would surely be welcomed, it is becoming increasingly clear that markets and the economy are coping well with the high rate environment, so policymakers are perhaps feeling that the need for monetary policy to ease is less urgent.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AAII Sentiment Survey<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed that optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks surged again. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 9.8 percentage points to 49.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish sentiment has reached an \"unusually high level,\"<\/em> surpassing its historical average of 37.5% for the 13th consecutive week. The last time optimism was higher was on December 21, 2023, at 52.9%. On the other side, bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 24.5%. This sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the 13th consecutive week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, approximately 80% of earnings reports are surpassing analysts' expectations. With results available from nearly half of the S&P 500 companies, including major tech-related firms, overall earnings are projected to have risen by 7.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their latest report on equity client flows, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said that the previous week saw the largest influx of U.S. equity investments in seven weeks, along with the most substantial private client inflows in over a year. Jill Carey Hall added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Wall Street remains under pressure as Treasury yields climb higher, following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's resolute stance against market speculation of impending rate cuts. In a recent interview, Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation before considering lowering interest rates, highlighting that the economy's robustness has effectively mitigated recession risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the necessity for additional evidence indicating a sustainable decline in inflation<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In January, job growth in the U.S. picked up pace, and wages saw their most significant increase in nearly two years. These are indications of enduring strength in the labor market, potentially complicating the Federal Reserve's plans to begin cutting interest rates in May. Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The strong jobs report indicates that demand in the labor market is higher than expected. While lower interest rates would surely be welcomed, it is becoming increasingly clear that markets and the economy are coping well with the high rate environment, so policymakers are perhaps feeling that the need for monetary policy to ease is less urgent.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

AAII Sentiment Survey<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the latest American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey showed that optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for stocks surged again. American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, jumped 9.8 percentage points to 49.1%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bullish sentiment has reached an \"unusually high level,\"<\/em> surpassing its historical average of 37.5% for the 13th consecutive week. The last time optimism was higher was on December 21, 2023, at 52.9%. On the other side, bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 24.5%. This sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the 13th consecutive week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simultaneously, approximately 80% of earnings reports are surpassing analysts' expectations. With results available from nearly half of the S&P 500 companies, including major tech-related firms, overall earnings are projected to have risen by 7.8% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In their latest report on equity client flows, BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall said that the previous week saw the largest influx of U.S. equity investments in seven weeks, along with the most substantial private client inflows in over a year. Jill Carey Hall added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Private clients were the biggest buyers of equities last week, led by purchases of ETFs and Tech stocks. Institutional clients were also net buyers after large outflows the week prior, while hedge fund clients were net sellers.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are actively monitoring earnings and forecasts from big companies against the backdrop of high borrowing costs but remarks from the Fed's policymakers through the week, including voting member Cleveland's Loretta Mester, will also be on investors' watch list.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts. What To Expect In The Days Ahead?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"fed-chair-jerome-powell-pushed-back-firmly-against-market-speculation-of-imminent-rate-cuts-what-to-expect-in-the-days-ahead","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-07 19:31:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-07 08:31:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15327","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15225,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-01 16:33:13","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:13","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell as Alphabet's projections for rising AI costs dented most megacap and chip stocks while the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this Wednesday. Google's parent company experienced a 6.1% decline, resulting in a 3.0% drop in the S&P 500 communication services sector. This occurred following its announcement of holiday-season advertising sales falling short of expectations and its projection of increased spending on artificial intelligence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) also lost 1.3% after forecasting higher costs to develop new artificial intelligence features, which overshadowed its upbeat quarterly results. Despite the optimistic outlook from the tech pioneers regarding customer enthusiasm for their generative AI-powered products, investors grew concerned about escalating development expenses for these innovative features. These mounting costs tempered their hopes for a significant sales surge from the new technology.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

These results and forecasts from big tech names, along with Tesla's growth warning last week, have reignited attention on the risks associated with the significant influence of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500 which has hit record highs in recent weeks. Apple, Meta Platforms, and Amazon.com set to report earnings on Thursday, fell over 1% each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: New Bitcoin Core Update May Natively Support Apple M1 Chips<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Revenue Forecast And Increased Projection<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Advanced Micro Devices saw a 3.3% decline as its first-quarter revenue forecast and increased projection for AI processors fell short of expectations. Other chip stocks including Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell dropped over 1% each. The attention of investors was also on the Federal Reserve's initial monetary policy decision of the year, and while it was widely anticipated that the Fed would maintain interest rates, many analysts said that the Fed is taking baby steps toward the cutting. Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist of B.Riley Wealth, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Not surprisingly, I don't think the Fed wants to show their hand, especially, when they have a couple of months of data to collect before they need to. The good news is we can forget about any more tightening. The bad news is it's 'when', not 'if', they're going to cut rates, and that 'when' has been pushed out to what had been the fringes of consensus.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Due to this, markets are showing some immediate disappointment as there's no explicit indication of imminent rate cuts. We're seeing an extremely neutral, non-committal statement from the Federal Reserve this Wednesday.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-as-alphabets-projections-for-rising-ai-costs-dented-most-mega-cap-and-chip-stocks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-01 16:33:21","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-01 05:33:21","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15225","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15043,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-19 05:56:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:40","post_content":"\n

Wall Street witnessed a significant stock decline this Wednesday following positive December U.S. retail sales data, which diminished the anticipation of an early initiation of the Federal Reserve's campaign to cut interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Retail Sales Report <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The December retail sales report from the Commerce Department (USRSL=ECI) depicted a robust consumer, responsible for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy. Despite facing the challenges of high inflation and a tight monetary policy, the consumer has shown resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The data revealed that discounts offered by retailers and a surge in motor vehicle acquisitions contributed to a greater-than-anticipated increase in U.S. retail sales, maintaining the economy on a robust trajectory in 2024. This bolstered the perspective that the Federal Reserve might not reduce interest rates as rapidly as initially anticipated for the current year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anticipations among traders for a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut in March declined to 55%, down from approximately 60% before the release of the retail sales data. Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had news that the U.S. consumer continues to be quite healthy, but that has increased anxiety that the Fed\u2019s first rate cut could potentially be pushed to May from March. Yields are also moving higher on the strong retail sales numbers, adding to near-term worries.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Stocks And Wall Street<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that a decline in U.S. stocks sent Wall Street's<\/a> \"fear gauge\" to a two-month high while JPMorgan analysts predict that the majority of negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller also emphasized that the central bank should refrain from hastily reducing interest rates until there is a clear indication that lower inflation is likely to persist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Weakened As Retail Sales Data Hampers Expectations For A Cut In Interest Rates","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-weakened-as-retail-sales-data-hampers-expectations-for-a-cut-in-interest-rates","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-19 05:56:51","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-18 18:56:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15043","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14973,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-11 11:22:35","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:35","post_content":"\n

Following a robust end to 2023 with a powerful surge, stocks have faced challenges in gaining upward momentum in the first days of 2024 due to varied economic data and remarks by Federal Reserve officials<\/a>. Consequently, investors have tempered their expectations regarding the central bank's potential rate cuts in terms of timing and magnitude for this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. Stocks And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Despite the rise in U.S. stocks this Wednesday, the surge was tempered as investors await forthcoming inflation updates and the impending major bank earnings slated for later in the week. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research in New York, said: \"What the market is doing, is reassessing its 2024 expectations in terms of earnings and terms of interest rates, and looking to justify the surge in prices that we saw in November and December.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors will shift towards the December consumer and producer inflation reports, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These reports hold significance in shaping the potential trajectory of the central bank's monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The Fed Raises Interest Rates By 25 BPS This Wednesday; Effects On Crypto And Financial Markets<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors will also closely monitor comments by New York Fed President John Williams and it is important to mention that market participants have scaled back expectations to a 67.6% chance for at least a 25-basis-point rate cut in March, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. While sentiment-based indicators show that investors are still bullish, a recommendation is that you continue taking a defensive investment approach in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Major Banking Institutions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By the end of the week, it's anticipated that major banking institutions such as JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce decreased fourth-quarter profits. Analysts have reduced their estimates for the fourth quarter earnings by 6.8%, surpassing the pre-pandemic 2019 average pre-earnings cut of 4.6% and the post-pandemic 2022\u20132023 average cut of 3.6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo will announce fourth-quarter earnings on Friday. Unfavorable news also emerged as Reuters reported on Monday that U.S. regional banks might encounter challenges in boosting profits in 2024. They are expected to contend with increased pressure to offer higher deposit rates compared to larger competitors, alongside potentially limited demand from borrowers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Given the uncertain trajectory of interest rates, economic analysts informed Reuters<\/a> that the earnings of regional lenders may be constrained. This limitation stems from their association with securities holdings, which, rather than generating income through loans or investments in higher-yielding assets, are currently showing paper losses.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Rose On Wednesday. The Focus Of Investors Now Turns To Inflation Reports And Major Bank Earnings","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-rose-on-wednesday-the-focus-of-investors-now-turns-to-inflation-reports-and-major-bank-earnings","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-11 11:22:40","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-11 00:22:40","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14973","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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