The positive news is that analysts from Goldman Sachs lowered their estimated 12-month recession probability to 15% this week, down five percentage points from its prior forecast. Analysts from Goldman Sachs said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September or October, but while historical patterns can offer insights, they are not definitive predictors of future market movements. While it is true that September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century, investors should base their decisions on a wide range of factors, including economic conditions, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The positive news is that analysts from Goldman Sachs lowered their estimated 12-month recession probability to 15% this week, down five percentage points from its prior forecast. Analysts from Goldman Sachs said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stocks aren't the only assets that can lose their value if history repeats and scares investors to stay away from risks. Government bonds and real estate prices could also fall, and cryptocurrencies will not certainly be in the situation to escape a fall. The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September or October, but while historical patterns can offer insights, they are not definitive predictors of future market movements. While it is true that September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century, investors should base their decisions on a wide range of factors, including economic conditions, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The positive news is that analysts from Goldman Sachs lowered their estimated 12-month recession probability to 15% this week, down five percentage points from its prior forecast. Analysts from Goldman Sachs said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Stocks aren't the only assets that can lose their value if history repeats and scares investors to stay away from risks. Government bonds and real estate prices could also fall, and cryptocurrencies will not certainly be in the situation to escape a fall. The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September or October, but while historical patterns can offer insights, they are not definitive predictors of future market movements. While it is true that September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century, investors should base their decisions on a wide range of factors, including economic conditions, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The positive news is that analysts from Goldman Sachs lowered their estimated 12-month recession probability to 15% this week, down five percentage points from its prior forecast. Analysts from Goldman Sachs said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is also a belief that individual investors liquidate stocks going into September to offset schooling costs for children, while another theory says that since investors expect the September Effect to happen, market psychology takes hold, and sentiment turns negative to align with those expectations. The S&P 500 has suffered an average decline of 0.7% during September, finishing positive just ~44% of the time, and in the graphic below that uses LSEG data, we can see the S&P 500's average percent change by month since 1950.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Stocks aren't the only assets that can lose their value if history repeats and scares investors to stay away from risks. Government bonds and real estate prices could also fall, and cryptocurrencies will not certainly be in the situation to escape a fall. The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September or October, but while historical patterns can offer insights, they are not definitive predictors of future market movements. While it is true that September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century, investors should base their decisions on a wide range of factors, including economic conditions, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The positive news is that analysts from Goldman Sachs lowered their estimated 12-month recession probability to 15% this week, down five percentage points from its prior forecast. Analysts from Goldman Sachs said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
September is historically the worst month for the S&P 500 on average, going back nearly a century, and the main question is, will history repeat? The September Effect is a supposed market anomaly whereby stock market returns are relatively weak, and it is generally believed that investors return from summer vacation in September ready to lock in gains as well as tax losses before the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is also a belief that individual investors liquidate stocks going into September to offset schooling costs for children, while another theory says that since investors expect the September Effect to happen, market psychology takes hold, and sentiment turns negative to align with those expectations. The S&P 500 has suffered an average decline of 0.7% during September, finishing positive just ~44% of the time, and in the graphic below that uses LSEG data, we can see the S&P 500's average percent change by month since 1950.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Stocks aren't the only assets that can lose their value if history repeats and scares investors to stay away from risks. Government bonds and real estate prices could also fall, and cryptocurrencies will not certainly be in the situation to escape a fall. The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September or October, but while historical patterns can offer insights, they are not definitive predictors of future market movements. While it is true that September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century, investors should base their decisions on a wide range of factors, including economic conditions, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The positive news is that analysts from Goldman Sachs lowered their estimated 12-month recession probability to 15% this week, down five percentage points from its prior forecast. Analysts from Goldman Sachs said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century for stocks, while the most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September. There are currently too many important things that could easily go wrong, and I would not be surprised to see a big sell-off in financial markets if something goes wrong. The upside potential for stocks and cryptocurrencies probably remains limited for the weeks ahead, and a recommendation is that investors should continue to take a defensive investment approach.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation Rose More Than Expected In August. Does This Indicate That The Federal Reserve Could Continue With Interest Rate Hikes?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflation-rose-more-than-expected-in-august-does-this-indicate-that-the-federal-reserve-could-continue-with-interest-rate-hikes","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-09-15 22:09:08","post_modified_gmt":"2023-09-15 12:09:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=13424","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":13289,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-09-09 00:30:13","post_date_gmt":"2023-09-08 14:30:13","post_content":"\n
September is historically the worst month for the S&P 500 on average, going back nearly a century, and the main question is, will history repeat? The September Effect is a supposed market anomaly whereby stock market returns are relatively weak, and it is generally believed that investors return from summer vacation in September ready to lock in gains as well as tax losses before the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is also a belief that individual investors liquidate stocks going into September to offset schooling costs for children, while another theory says that since investors expect the September Effect to happen, market psychology takes hold, and sentiment turns negative to align with those expectations. The S&P 500 has suffered an average decline of 0.7% during September, finishing positive just ~44% of the time, and in the graphic below that uses LSEG data, we can see the S&P 500's average percent change by month since 1950.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Stocks aren't the only assets that can lose their value if history repeats and scares investors to stay away from risks. Government bonds and real estate prices could also fall, and cryptocurrencies will not certainly be in the situation to escape a fall. The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September or October, but while historical patterns can offer insights, they are not definitive predictors of future market movements. While it is true that September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century, investors should base their decisions on a wide range of factors, including economic conditions, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The positive news is that analysts from Goldman Sachs lowered their estimated 12-month recession probability to 15% this week, down five percentage points from its prior forecast. Analysts from Goldman Sachs said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned recently that the U.S. central bank is \"prepared\" to increase interest rates further if needed as it seeks to bring inflation down to its 2% target. The next Federal Reserve policy meeting will be at the center of attention in September 2023, but investors will also have a focus on August producer prices and retail sales data on Thursday. The federal funds rate is now in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, which is the highest level in 22 years, and in the days ahead, stock and cryptocurrency markets will be hypersensitive to any FED comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century for stocks, while the most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September. There are currently too many important things that could easily go wrong, and I would not be surprised to see a big sell-off in financial markets if something goes wrong. The upside potential for stocks and cryptocurrencies probably remains limited for the weeks ahead, and a recommendation is that investors should continue to take a defensive investment approach.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation Rose More Than Expected In August. Does This Indicate That The Federal Reserve Could Continue With Interest Rate Hikes?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflation-rose-more-than-expected-in-august-does-this-indicate-that-the-federal-reserve-could-continue-with-interest-rate-hikes","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-09-15 22:09:08","post_modified_gmt":"2023-09-15 12:09:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=13424","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":13289,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-09-09 00:30:13","post_date_gmt":"2023-09-08 14:30:13","post_content":"\n
September is historically the worst month for the S&P 500 on average, going back nearly a century, and the main question is, will history repeat? The September Effect is a supposed market anomaly whereby stock market returns are relatively weak, and it is generally believed that investors return from summer vacation in September ready to lock in gains as well as tax losses before the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is also a belief that individual investors liquidate stocks going into September to offset schooling costs for children, while another theory says that since investors expect the September Effect to happen, market psychology takes hold, and sentiment turns negative to align with those expectations. The S&P 500 has suffered an average decline of 0.7% during September, finishing positive just ~44% of the time, and in the graphic below that uses LSEG data, we can see the S&P 500's average percent change by month since 1950.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Stocks aren't the only assets that can lose their value if history repeats and scares investors to stay away from risks. Government bonds and real estate prices could also fall, and cryptocurrencies will not certainly be in the situation to escape a fall. The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September or October, but while historical patterns can offer insights, they are not definitive predictors of future market movements. While it is true that September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century, investors should base their decisions on a wide range of factors, including economic conditions, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The positive news is that analysts from Goldman Sachs lowered their estimated 12-month recession probability to 15% this week, down five percentage points from its prior forecast. Analysts from Goldman Sachs said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"The uptick in the core CPI is a reminder that the risks remain tilted toward additional rate hikes. However, a slowing economy, loosening labor market conditions, and moderating wage growth will support a deceleration in inflation and enable the Fed to keep policy steady\"<\/em> until it begins gradually cutting rates in mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned recently that the U.S. central bank is \"prepared\" to increase interest rates further if needed as it seeks to bring inflation down to its 2% target. The next Federal Reserve policy meeting will be at the center of attention in September 2023, but investors will also have a focus on August producer prices and retail sales data on Thursday. The federal funds rate is now in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, which is the highest level in 22 years, and in the days ahead, stock and cryptocurrency markets will be hypersensitive to any FED comments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
At the same time, September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century for stocks, while the most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September. There are currently too many important things that could easily go wrong, and I would not be surprised to see a big sell-off in financial markets if something goes wrong. The upside potential for stocks and cryptocurrencies probably remains limited for the weeks ahead, and a recommendation is that investors should continue to take a defensive investment approach.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation Rose More Than Expected In August. Does This Indicate That The Federal Reserve Could Continue With Interest Rate Hikes?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflation-rose-more-than-expected-in-august-does-this-indicate-that-the-federal-reserve-could-continue-with-interest-rate-hikes","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-09-15 22:09:08","post_modified_gmt":"2023-09-15 12:09:08","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=13424","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":13289,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-09-09 00:30:13","post_date_gmt":"2023-09-08 14:30:13","post_content":"\n
September is historically the worst month for the S&P 500 on average, going back nearly a century, and the main question is, will history repeat? The September Effect is a supposed market anomaly whereby stock market returns are relatively weak, and it is generally believed that investors return from summer vacation in September ready to lock in gains as well as tax losses before the end of the year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There is also a belief that individual investors liquidate stocks going into September to offset schooling costs for children, while another theory says that since investors expect the September Effect to happen, market psychology takes hold, and sentiment turns negative to align with those expectations. The S&P 500 has suffered an average decline of 0.7% during September, finishing positive just ~44% of the time, and in the graphic below that uses LSEG data, we can see the S&P 500's average percent change by month since 1950.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Stocks aren't the only assets that can lose their value if history repeats and scares investors to stay away from risks. Government bonds and real estate prices could also fall, and cryptocurrencies will not certainly be in the situation to escape a fall. The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The most significant market crashes, such as the Great Depression in 1929 and the 2008 financial crisis, occurred in September or October, but while historical patterns can offer insights, they are not definitive predictors of future market movements. While it is true that September has been the worst-performing and most frequently negative month over the past century, investors should base their decisions on a wide range of factors, including economic conditions, corporate earnings, and geopolitical events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The positive news is that analysts from Goldman Sachs lowered their estimated 12-month recession probability to 15% this week, down five percentage points from its prior forecast. Analysts from Goldman Sachs said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for September 20, and according to a survey from the CME Group, markets are pricing a 97% chance that Fed policymakers will keep interest rates at the current levels. Oxford Economics Lead U.S. Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for September 20, and according to a survey from the CME Group, markets are pricing a 97% chance that Fed policymakers will keep interest rates at the current levels. Oxford Economics Lead U.S. Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Food inflation was flat on a month-over-month basis at 0.2%, while growth in energy prices jumped to 5.6% from July's 0.1% gain. The 'hot' August inflation report breaks a string of three consecutive months of easing inflation pressures in the United States, and the new inflation data could give the Fed reason to debate whether any further rate hikes are needed. Many analysts agree that rate hikes are not completely off the table for the rest of the year, while a Reuters poll showed that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before the April-June period next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for September 20, and according to a survey from the CME Group, markets are pricing a 97% chance that Fed policymakers will keep interest rates at the current levels. Oxford Economics Lead U.S. Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August inflation report this Wednesday, and the report showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices that urban consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.6% in August. It is important to say that this increase represents the biggest monthly rise since June 2022, which could raise concerns for some Federal Reserve members. On a year-over-year basis, the headline inflation rose 3.7% against economists' estimate of a 3.6% rise, while the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed in line with expectations at 4.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Food inflation was flat on a month-over-month basis at 0.2%, while growth in energy prices jumped to 5.6% from July's 0.1% gain. The 'hot' August inflation report breaks a string of three consecutive months of easing inflation pressures in the United States, and the new inflation data could give the Fed reason to debate whether any further rate hikes are needed. Many analysts agree that rate hikes are not completely off the table for the rest of the year, while a Reuters poll showed that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before the April-June period next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for September 20, and according to a survey from the CME Group, markets are pricing a 97% chance that Fed policymakers will keep interest rates at the current levels. Oxford Economics Lead U.S. Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This situation usually negatively affects stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high-interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices. Stocks aren't the only assets that could significantly lose their value, and investors should keep in mind that cryptocurrencies could also be in the situation to make an even more significant fall. The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The U.S. Central Bank Is Widely Seen Keeping Interest Rates Unchanged This Wednesday. What Does This Mean For The Stock And Cryptocurrency Market?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-u-s-central-bank-is-widely-seen-keeping-interest-rates-unchanged-this-wednesday-what-does-this-mean-for-the-stock-and-cryptocurrency-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-09-28 22:55:05","post_modified_gmt":"2023-09-28 12:55:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=13515","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":13424,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-09-15 22:08:57","post_date_gmt":"2023-09-15 12:08:57","post_content":"\n
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August inflation report this Wednesday, and the report showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices that urban consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.6% in August. It is important to say that this increase represents the biggest monthly rise since June 2022, which could raise concerns for some Federal Reserve members. On a year-over-year basis, the headline inflation rose 3.7% against economists' estimate of a 3.6% rise, while the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed in line with expectations at 4.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Food inflation was flat on a month-over-month basis at 0.2%, while growth in energy prices jumped to 5.6% from July's 0.1% gain. The 'hot' August inflation report breaks a string of three consecutive months of easing inflation pressures in the United States, and the new inflation data could give the Fed reason to debate whether any further rate hikes are needed. Many analysts agree that rate hikes are not completely off the table for the rest of the year, while a Reuters poll showed that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before the April-June period next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for September 20, and according to a survey from the CME Group, markets are pricing a 97% chance that Fed policymakers will keep interest rates at the current levels. Oxford Economics Lead U.S. Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Higher rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can harm economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This situation usually negatively affects stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high-interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices. Stocks aren't the only assets that could significantly lose their value, and investors should keep in mind that cryptocurrencies could also be in the situation to make an even more significant fall. The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The U.S. Central Bank Is Widely Seen Keeping Interest Rates Unchanged This Wednesday. What Does This Mean For The Stock And Cryptocurrency Market?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-u-s-central-bank-is-widely-seen-keeping-interest-rates-unchanged-this-wednesday-what-does-this-mean-for-the-stock-and-cryptocurrency-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-09-28 22:55:05","post_modified_gmt":"2023-09-28 12:55:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=13515","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":13424,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-09-15 22:08:57","post_date_gmt":"2023-09-15 12:08:57","post_content":"\n
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August inflation report this Wednesday, and the report showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices that urban consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.6% in August. It is important to say that this increase represents the biggest monthly rise since June 2022, which could raise concerns for some Federal Reserve members. On a year-over-year basis, the headline inflation rose 3.7% against economists' estimate of a 3.6% rise, while the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed in line with expectations at 4.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Food inflation was flat on a month-over-month basis at 0.2%, while growth in energy prices jumped to 5.6% from July's 0.1% gain. The 'hot' August inflation report breaks a string of three consecutive months of easing inflation pressures in the United States, and the new inflation data could give the Fed reason to debate whether any further rate hikes are needed. Many analysts agree that rate hikes are not completely off the table for the rest of the year, while a Reuters poll showed that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before the April-June period next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for September 20, and according to a survey from the CME Group, markets are pricing a 97% chance that Fed policymakers will keep interest rates at the current levels. Oxford Economics Lead U.S. Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\"What's being priced into the market is a pause but increased risk that rates will stay higher for longer. If the Fed announced that they are removing rate cuts in 2024 by raising the dot plot, it would generally be seen as a very hawkish pause and negative news for riskier assets.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Higher rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can harm economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This situation usually negatively affects stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high-interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices. Stocks aren't the only assets that could significantly lose their value, and investors should keep in mind that cryptocurrencies could also be in the situation to make an even more significant fall. The crypto market displayed a high correlation with U.S. equities, and if a downtrend is witnessed in the stock market, the same is usually replicated in the crypto-sphere as well.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The U.S. Central Bank Is Widely Seen Keeping Interest Rates Unchanged This Wednesday. What Does This Mean For The Stock And Cryptocurrency Market?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-u-s-central-bank-is-widely-seen-keeping-interest-rates-unchanged-this-wednesday-what-does-this-mean-for-the-stock-and-cryptocurrency-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-09-28 22:55:05","post_modified_gmt":"2023-09-28 12:55:05","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=13515","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":13424,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-09-15 22:08:57","post_date_gmt":"2023-09-15 12:08:57","post_content":"\n
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its August inflation report this Wednesday, and the report showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures prices that urban consumers pay for a basket of goods and services, rose 0.6% in August. It is important to say that this increase represents the biggest monthly rise since June 2022, which could raise concerns for some Federal Reserve members. On a year-over-year basis, the headline inflation rose 3.7% against economists' estimate of a 3.6% rise, while the core measure, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, climbed in line with expectations at 4.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Food inflation was flat on a month-over-month basis at 0.2%, while growth in energy prices jumped to 5.6% from July's 0.1% gain. The 'hot' August inflation report breaks a string of three consecutive months of easing inflation pressures in the United States, and the new inflation data could give the Fed reason to debate whether any further rate hikes are needed. Many analysts agree that rate hikes are not completely off the table for the rest of the year, while a Reuters poll showed that the Fed is unlikely to cut rates before the April-June period next year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for September 20, and according to a survey from the CME Group, markets are pricing a 97% chance that Fed policymakers will keep interest rates at the current levels. Oxford Economics Lead U.S. Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also recently warned that the U.S. central bank is \"prepared\" to increase interest rates further if needed, and the main question remains how long the Federal Reserve will keep rates at restrictive levels. Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management in Philadelphia, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also recently warned that the U.S. central bank is \"prepared\" to increase interest rates further if needed, and the main question remains how long the Federal Reserve will keep rates at restrictive levels. Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management in Philadelphia, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysts from American multinational independent investment bank and financial services company Stifel said that they expect that the majority of Fed members continue to expect at least one additional rate increase in 2023 after the 'hot' August inflation report broke a string of three consecutive months of easing inflation pressures in the United States. Inflation remains above Powell & Co's average annual 2% target, while the U.S. economy has proven more resilient than analysts previously expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also recently warned that the U.S. central bank is \"prepared\" to increase interest rates further if needed, and the main question remains how long the Federal Reserve will keep rates at restrictive levels. Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management in Philadelphia, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% level this Wednesday, and there is a growing likelihood that interest rates will also stay unchanged at its next meeting in November. However, some analysts say that rate hikes are not completely off the table for the rest of the year. Because of this, investors will observe comments from Federal Reserve officials that could give more insight into the path of interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysts from American multinational independent investment bank and financial services company Stifel said that they expect that the majority of Fed members continue to expect at least one additional rate increase in 2023 after the 'hot' August inflation report broke a string of three consecutive months of easing inflation pressures in the United States. Inflation remains above Powell & Co's average annual 2% target, while the U.S. economy has proven more resilient than analysts previously expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also recently warned that the U.S. central bank is \"prepared\" to increase interest rates further if needed, and the main question remains how long the Federal Reserve will keep rates at restrictive levels. Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management in Philadelphia, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey reported last week that bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, gained 5.4 percentage points to 34.6%. Pessimism is above its historical average of 31.0% for the third time in five weeks, and investors should keep in mind that stocks aren't the only assets that could significantly lose their value. Cryptocurrencies could also be in the situation to make an even bigger fall, especially if Bitcoin continues to maintain a downside trajectory. There are expectations of \"market turbulence\" from looming recession concerns and macro uncertainty, and the upside potential for stocks and cryptocurrencies probably remains limited for the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Are Under Pressure At The Start Of The Earnings Season. What To Expect In The Upcoming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-are-under-pressure-at-the-start-of-the-earnings-season-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-09-28 22:57:15","post_modified_gmt":"2023-09-28 12:57:15","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=13624","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":13515,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-09-28 22:54:44","post_date_gmt":"2023-09-28 12:54:44","post_content":"\n
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% level this Wednesday, and there is a growing likelihood that interest rates will also stay unchanged at its next meeting in November. However, some analysts say that rate hikes are not completely off the table for the rest of the year. Because of this, investors will observe comments from Federal Reserve officials that could give more insight into the path of interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysts from American multinational independent investment bank and financial services company Stifel said that they expect that the majority of Fed members continue to expect at least one additional rate increase in 2023 after the 'hot' August inflation report broke a string of three consecutive months of easing inflation pressures in the United States. Inflation remains above Powell & Co's average annual 2% target, while the U.S. economy has proven more resilient than analysts previously expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also recently warned that the U.S. central bank is \"prepared\" to increase interest rates further if needed, and the main question remains how long the Federal Reserve will keep rates at restrictive levels. Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management in Philadelphia, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to LSEG IBES data that was released last Friday, third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are currently estimated by analysts to increase just 1.5% year-over-year, which is slightly down from a week ago, when analysts were estimating a 1.9% year-over-year increase. Micron Technology, Nike, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, United Health Group, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo are among the companies scheduled to report quarterly results by October 17. A negative financial performance among these companies could lower shares on Wall Street even more, and investors will watch guidance carefully from these companies to determine if profit margins remain healthy and strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey reported last week that bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, gained 5.4 percentage points to 34.6%. Pessimism is above its historical average of 31.0% for the third time in five weeks, and investors should keep in mind that stocks aren't the only assets that could significantly lose their value. Cryptocurrencies could also be in the situation to make an even bigger fall, especially if Bitcoin continues to maintain a downside trajectory. There are expectations of \"market turbulence\" from looming recession concerns and macro uncertainty, and the upside potential for stocks and cryptocurrencies probably remains limited for the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Are Under Pressure At The Start Of The Earnings Season. What To Expect In The Upcoming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-are-under-pressure-at-the-start-of-the-earnings-season-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-09-28 22:57:15","post_modified_gmt":"2023-09-28 12:57:15","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=13624","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":13515,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-09-28 22:54:44","post_date_gmt":"2023-09-28 12:54:44","post_content":"\n
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% level this Wednesday, and there is a growing likelihood that interest rates will also stay unchanged at its next meeting in November. However, some analysts say that rate hikes are not completely off the table for the rest of the year. Because of this, investors will observe comments from Federal Reserve officials that could give more insight into the path of interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysts from American multinational independent investment bank and financial services company Stifel said that they expect that the majority of Fed members continue to expect at least one additional rate increase in 2023 after the 'hot' August inflation report broke a string of three consecutive months of easing inflation pressures in the United States. Inflation remains above Powell & Co's average annual 2% target, while the U.S. economy has proven more resilient than analysts previously expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also recently warned that the U.S. central bank is \"prepared\" to increase interest rates further if needed, and the main question remains how long the Federal Reserve will keep rates at restrictive levels. Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management in Philadelphia, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Higher rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation. Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, but if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
According to LSEG IBES data that was released last Friday, third-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are currently estimated by analysts to increase just 1.5% year-over-year, which is slightly down from a week ago, when analysts were estimating a 1.9% year-over-year increase. Micron Technology, Nike, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, BlackRock, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, Johnson & Johnson, United Health Group, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo are among the companies scheduled to report quarterly results by October 17. A negative financial performance among these companies could lower shares on Wall Street even more, and investors will watch guidance carefully from these companies to determine if profit margins remain healthy and strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey reported last week that bearish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will fall over the next six months, gained 5.4 percentage points to 34.6%. Pessimism is above its historical average of 31.0% for the third time in five weeks, and investors should keep in mind that stocks aren't the only assets that could significantly lose their value. Cryptocurrencies could also be in the situation to make an even bigger fall, especially if Bitcoin continues to maintain a downside trajectory. There are expectations of \"market turbulence\" from looming recession concerns and macro uncertainty, and the upside potential for stocks and cryptocurrencies probably remains limited for the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Are Under Pressure At The Start Of The Earnings Season. What To Expect In The Upcoming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-are-under-pressure-at-the-start-of-the-earnings-season-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-09-28 22:57:15","post_modified_gmt":"2023-09-28 12:57:15","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=13624","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":13515,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-09-28 22:54:44","post_date_gmt":"2023-09-28 12:54:44","post_content":"\n
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates at 5.25%-5.50% level this Wednesday, and there is a growing likelihood that interest rates will also stay unchanged at its next meeting in November. However, some analysts say that rate hikes are not completely off the table for the rest of the year. Because of this, investors will observe comments from Federal Reserve officials that could give more insight into the path of interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Analysts from American multinational independent investment bank and financial services company Stifel said that they expect that the majority of Fed members continue to expect at least one additional rate increase in 2023 after the 'hot' August inflation report broke a string of three consecutive months of easing inflation pressures in the United States. Inflation remains above Powell & Co's average annual 2% target, while the U.S. economy has proven more resilient than analysts previously expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also recently warned that the U.S. central bank is \"prepared\" to increase interest rates further if needed, and the main question remains how long the Federal Reserve will keep rates at restrictive levels. Michael Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management in Philadelphia, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/SP-500.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"Rates](\"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Rates-and-inflation.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"Feds](\"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/Fed-1-800x525.jpg\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n