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\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 … 4 5 6 7 8 … 12

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n
\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n
\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

A Technical Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The recalibrated timeline for QT indicates a more prolonged period of balance sheet reduction. As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate its policy decisions, market participants, businesses, and consumers should monitor these developments closely. Changes in the balance sheet size can influence interest rates, liquidity conditions, and overall financial market dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Technical Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

What This Means for the Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The recalibrated timeline for QT indicates a more prolonged period of balance sheet reduction. As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate its policy decisions, market participants, businesses, and consumers should monitor these developments closely. Changes in the balance sheet size can influence interest rates, liquidity conditions, and overall financial market dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Technical Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What This Means for the Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The recalibrated timeline for QT indicates a more prolonged period of balance sheet reduction. As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate its policy decisions, market participants, businesses, and consumers should monitor these developments closely. Changes in the balance sheet size can influence interest rates, liquidity conditions, and overall financial market dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Technical Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The quantitative tightening process has been an integral part of the Federal Reserve's strategy to combat inflation. Alongside rate hikes, the central bank initiated large-scale purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities during the COVID-19 pandemic's onset in 2020. This move led to an expansion of its holdings to approximately $9 trillion by mid-2022. However, since last year, the Fed has been gradually reducing its balance sheet size, although specific guidance on the timeline remains somewhat ambiguous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What This Means for the Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The recalibrated timeline for QT indicates a more prolonged period of balance sheet reduction. As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate its policy decisions, market participants, businesses, and consumers should monitor these developments closely. Changes in the balance sheet size can influence interest rates, liquidity conditions, and overall financial market dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Technical Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Federal Reserve Strategy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The quantitative tightening process has been an integral part of the Federal Reserve's strategy to combat inflation. Alongside rate hikes, the central bank initiated large-scale purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities during the COVID-19 pandemic's onset in 2020. This move led to an expansion of its holdings to approximately $9 trillion by mid-2022. However, since last year, the Fed has been gradually reducing its balance sheet size, although specific guidance on the timeline remains somewhat ambiguous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What This Means for the Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The recalibrated timeline for QT indicates a more prolonged period of balance sheet reduction. As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate its policy decisions, market participants, businesses, and consumers should monitor these developments closely. Changes in the balance sheet size can influence interest rates, liquidity conditions, and overall financial market dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Technical Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

This adjustment carries significant implications. If these predictions materialize, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet<\/a> will likely shrink to approximately $6.75 trillion, down from its current level of roughly $7.764 trillion. Moreover, banks estimated that the central bank's reverse repo facility would hold $375 billion when QT concludes, a reduction from the anticipated $625 billion as forecasted in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Strategy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The quantitative tightening process has been an integral part of the Federal Reserve's strategy to combat inflation. Alongside rate hikes, the central bank initiated large-scale purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities during the COVID-19 pandemic's onset in 2020. This move led to an expansion of its holdings to approximately $9 trillion by mid-2022. However, since last year, the Fed has been gradually reducing its balance sheet size, although specific guidance on the timeline remains somewhat ambiguous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What This Means for the Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The recalibrated timeline for QT indicates a more prolonged period of balance sheet reduction. As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate its policy decisions, market participants, businesses, and consumers should monitor these developments closely. Changes in the balance sheet size can influence interest rates, liquidity conditions, and overall financial market dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Technical Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Previously, primary dealers\u2014major banks\u2014projected that the QT process would conclude by the third quarter. However, the sentiment has evolved. According to the latest survey taken before the Fed's December 12-13 policy meeting, these banks now foresee the QT process ending in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This adjustment carries significant implications. If these predictions materialize, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet<\/a> will likely shrink to approximately $6.75 trillion, down from its current level of roughly $7.764 trillion. Moreover, banks estimated that the central bank's reverse repo facility would hold $375 billion when QT concludes, a reduction from the anticipated $625 billion as forecasted in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Strategy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The quantitative tightening process has been an integral part of the Federal Reserve's strategy to combat inflation. Alongside rate hikes, the central bank initiated large-scale purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities during the COVID-19 pandemic's onset in 2020. This move led to an expansion of its holdings to approximately $9 trillion by mid-2022. However, since last year, the Fed has been gradually reducing its balance sheet size, although specific guidance on the timeline remains somewhat ambiguous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What This Means for the Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The recalibrated timeline for QT indicates a more prolonged period of balance sheet reduction. As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate its policy decisions, market participants, businesses, and consumers should monitor these developments closely. Changes in the balance sheet size can influence interest rates, liquidity conditions, and overall financial market dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Technical Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

A Change in Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Previously, primary dealers\u2014major banks\u2014projected that the QT process would conclude by the third quarter. However, the sentiment has evolved. According to the latest survey taken before the Fed's December 12-13 policy meeting, these banks now foresee the QT process ending in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This adjustment carries significant implications. If these predictions materialize, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet<\/a> will likely shrink to approximately $6.75 trillion, down from its current level of roughly $7.764 trillion. Moreover, banks estimated that the central bank's reverse repo facility would hold $375 billion when QT concludes, a reduction from the anticipated $625 billion as forecasted in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Strategy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The quantitative tightening process has been an integral part of the Federal Reserve's strategy to combat inflation. Alongside rate hikes, the central bank initiated large-scale purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities during the COVID-19 pandemic's onset in 2020. This move led to an expansion of its holdings to approximately $9 trillion by mid-2022. However, since last year, the Fed has been gradually reducing its balance sheet size, although specific guidance on the timeline remains somewhat ambiguous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What This Means for the Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The recalibrated timeline for QT indicates a more prolonged period of balance sheet reduction. As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate its policy decisions, market participants, businesses, and consumers should monitor these developments closely. Changes in the balance sheet size can influence interest rates, liquidity conditions, and overall financial market dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Technical Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

In a recent survey conducted by the New York Federal Reserve<\/a>, Wall Street's major banks have recalibrated their predictions regarding the Federal Reserve's balance sheet drawdown. This shift suggests that the U.S. central bank might conclude its quantitative tightening (QT) process later than initially anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Change in Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Previously, primary dealers\u2014major banks\u2014projected that the QT process would conclude by the third quarter. However, the sentiment has evolved. According to the latest survey taken before the Fed's December 12-13 policy meeting, these banks now foresee the QT process ending in the fourth quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This adjustment carries significant implications. If these predictions materialize, the Federal Reserve's balance sheet<\/a> will likely shrink to approximately $6.75 trillion, down from its current level of roughly $7.764 trillion. Moreover, banks estimated that the central bank's reverse repo facility would hold $375 billion when QT concludes, a reduction from the anticipated $625 billion as forecasted in October.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Strategy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The quantitative tightening process has been an integral part of the Federal Reserve's strategy to combat inflation. Alongside rate hikes, the central bank initiated large-scale purchases of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities during the COVID-19 pandemic's onset in 2020. This move led to an expansion of its holdings to approximately $9 trillion by mid-2022. However, since last year, the Fed has been gradually reducing its balance sheet size, although specific guidance on the timeline remains somewhat ambiguous.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What This Means for the Economy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The recalibrated timeline for QT indicates a more prolonged period of balance sheet reduction. As the Federal Reserve continues to navigate its policy decisions, market participants, businesses, and consumers should monitor these developments closely. Changes in the balance sheet size can influence interest rates, liquidity conditions, and overall financial market dynamics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Technical Perspective<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

From a technical standpoint, the Federal Reserve's<\/a> balance sheet management serves as a critical tool in its monetary policy arsenal. The evolving predictions by Wall Street's primary dealers underscore the complexities involved in forecasting economic variables, such as inflation and interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the QT process continues, policymakers and market participants must remain vigilant, considering the potential ramifications for financial stability and economic growth. This dynamic landscape necessitates ongoing analysis and adaptation to ensure that monetary policy objectives align with evolving economic conditions.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Decoding Wall Street's Shift: A Closer Look At Wall Street's Changing Perspective","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"decoding-wall-streets-shift-a-closer-look-at-wall-streets-changing-perspective","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-10 07:51:25","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-09 20:51:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14931","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14888,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-01-06 18:33:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:09","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes fell at the beginning of the 2024 year as investors locked in profits after a very successful 2023 and are currently waiting for the Federal Reserve's<\/a> meeting that could offer hints on its interest rate path. Ken Polcari, managing partner at Kace Capital Advisors, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline yesterday, today, and maybe for the next couple of weeks, is a result of people locking in profits and reconsidering what the narrative is - are rates going down five or six times as it appeared to be at the end of last year?\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The Nasdaq Composite kicked off the year with a 1.5% drop pressured by a selloff in the tech sector<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Fed's December meeting minutes are set to be disclosed at 2:00 p.m. ET, potentially providing information regarding the central bank's shift toward reducing interest rates. Although it's widely anticipated that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month, traders have priced in a 65.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate reduction in March, according to CMEGroup's FedWatch tool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, a voting member in the FOMC's rate-setting committee, said recently that the U.S. central bank is \"making real progress\" towards taming inflation and a soft landing seeming \"increasingly conceivable\". Encouragingly, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey indicated a surge in optimism among individual investors regarding the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market, reaching its peak level in more than two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite this, JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to be cautious due to potential recession risks. At the same time, analysts at Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale anticipate a turbulent 2024 for U.S. stocks, projecting fluctuations that could involve nearing recent highs, encountering declines, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This week will witness a series of labor market data releases, culminating in the government's December employment report on Friday. These reports could significantly influence the forecast for the Fed's interest rate trajectory this year, prompting investors to scrutinize the data. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

 \"The job market is cooling and we should see confirmation of that in this Friday\u2019s jobs report\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen last year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust year ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession, especially as the Fed initiates rate cuts in the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell At The Beginning Of 2024 year. Investors Locked In Profits After A Strong 2023 And Wait For The Federal Reserve's Meeting","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-fell-at-the-beginning-of-2024-year-investors-locked-in-profits-after-a-strong-2023-and-wait-for-the-federal-reserves-meeting","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-01-06 18:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-01-06 07:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14888","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14798,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-29 23:40:41","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:41","post_content":"\n

In a strategic move, the U.S. has escalated its stance against Russia by targeting financial institutions that aid Moscow in circumventing international sanctions<\/a>. This significant move aims to exert more pressure on Russia amid its ongoing military activities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On December 22nd, U.S. President Joe Biden signed an executive order with a clear intent to penalize financial entities that offer support to Russia in bypassing sanctions. This move amplifies Washington's commitment to curb Russia's aggressive actions and shows the world that the U.S. means business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the White House, the new authority also empowers the U.S. to expand import bans on specific Russian products, including seafood and diamonds. Such sanctions are not merely symbolic gestures; they have tangible economic implications, affecting the lifeline of Russia's economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> $4M+ In Bitcoin Donated To Support Ukrainian Military<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

National Security And Violations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said that anyone supporting Russia\u2019s unlawful war effort is at risk of losing access to the U.S. financial system. His statement underscores the severity of the situation.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order is not a solo act by the U.S. but is a more coordinated effort with its allies. The international community is banding together to ensure that financial institutions worldwide understand the repercussions of assisting Russia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the order does not single out specific nations, countries like China, Turkey, and the UAE have also been under scrutiny for potential violations. Experts in the field emphasize that the order highlights the genuine risks these foreign financial institutions face.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

European Connections With Russia<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

By targeting financial intermediaries, the U.S. aims to disrupt Russia's attempts to evade sanctions through intricate networks of front companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This executive order isn't a distant threat\u2014it's effective immediately. While U.S. and European institutions have largely reduced their ties with Russia, the order serves as a stark reminder of the global economic consequences for those aiding Moscow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Specialists on financial crimes view this move as a nuanced application of secondary sanctions, drawing parallels with Iran-style measures. The forthcoming ban on Russian diamonds by the G7<\/a> further solidifies this multi-pronged approach to isolate Russia economically.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The executive signals a calculated strategy to choke off Moscow's financial lifelines. By targeting the core of Russia's economic networks, Washington aims to create a ripple effect that resonates globally. As nations recalibrate their financial ties, the world watches closely, anticipating the next chapter in this high-stakes geopolitical standoff.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Sanctions: How the U.S. Is Tightening The Noose On Russia's Financial Networks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"sanctions-how-the-u-s-is-tightening-the-noose-on-russias-financial-networks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 23:40:47","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-29 12:40:47","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14798","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14805,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-29 00:14:32","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:32","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks are extending an eight-week rally in the year's final week and according to the latest American Association of Individual Investors<\/a> (AAII) Sentiment Survey, optimism among individual investors about the short-term outlook for the U.S. stock market rose to its highest level in over two and a half years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) reported that bullish sentiment, or expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, increased by 1.6 percentage points to 52.9%. For the third consecutive week, optimism remains \"remarkably high\" and it is also important to say that bullish sentiment has persisted above its historical average of 37.5% for eight straight weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Nasdaq
The Nasdaq Composite Index surged by an impressive 45% in the current year of 2023 (so far)<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin (DOGE) And Shiba Inu (SHIB) Technical Analysis For February 2023<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

American Association Of Individual Investors Report<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) also reported that pessimism is \"unusually low\" and bearish sentiment remains below its historical average of 31.0% for the eight consecutive weeks. U.S. stock indexes notched their longest weekly winning streaks in years and the positive information is that the latest economic data indicated inflation is easing down closer to the Fed's average annual 2% target. Peter Cardillo, the chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We had a good inflation number on Friday and the momentum stays towards the upside. If inflation continues to move down in January and February, there's a good chance that the Fed may cut (rates) earlier than anticipated.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Caution For Individual Investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, Cameron Dawson, chief investment officer at NewEdge Wealth, is flagging the most recent AAII sentiment survey, among other measures of market sentiment. Dawson emphasizes the significance of regularly assessing the current market sentiment, even though she acknowledges that these readings do not serve as precise timing indicators.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lori Calvasina, leading U.S. equity strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, highlighted increased risks of a pullback as the S&P 500 nears a record high towards the end of the year. JPMorgan Asset Management advocates caution among investors due to potential recession risks. At the same time, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale analysts predict a volatile 2024 for U.S. stocks, foreseeing fluctuations between nearing their recent highs, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Optimism Among Individual Investors About The Short-Term Outlook Of The U.S. Stock Market Rose To Its Highest Level In Over Two And A Half Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"optimism-among-individual-investors-about-the-short-term-outlook-of-the-u-s-stock-market-rose-to-its-highest-level-in-over-two-and-a-half-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-29 00:14:37","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-28 13:14:37","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14805","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14727,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-22 00:35:19","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:19","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks continue to show positive development as market participants analyzed increasing anticipations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve<\/a> in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high of 4,796.56 hit on Jan. 3, 2022, and should the benchmark index manage to top that mark, it would confirm a bull market that began at the low on October 12, 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"
The S&P 500 is currently less than 1% from its closing record high<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additional signs of a robust economy are also offering support, and it's worth noting that the comments made by the Richmond Fed President on Tuesday morning added further positivity by highlighting \"good progress\" in addressing inflation concerns. He said that if inflation keeps slowing like it is now, the central bank \"would of course respond appropriately\"<\/em> by cutting interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news is that the Commerce Department reported a substantial positive surprise in the housing sector, revealing that new U.S. home sales soared by 14.8% last month to reach 1.560 million units at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR). Analysts expected the number to be essentially unchanged at around 1.360 million units SAAR. Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial<\/a>, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We are seeing strength in both single-family and multi-family activity as homebuilders are taking advantage of the low supply of existing homes on the market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Target<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that David Kostin, Goldman Sach's chief U.S. equity strategist, increased this week his S&P 500 index target for the upcoming year. As per Kostin, the enhanced macroeconomic forecast suggests a more favorable setting for introducing IPOs to the market. Additionally, he holds the view that enduring economic growth and declining interest rates will be advantageous for stocks that possess weaker financial standings, especially those susceptible to changes in economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lori Calvasina, head of U.S. equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets in New York, said that as the S&P 500 approaches a record high as the year draws to a close, the pullback risks have grown. JPMorgan Asset Management also advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while analysts from Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale warn of an anticipated volatile 2024, forecasting the index to oscillate between nearing its all-time high, facing a decline, and then rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toward the end of the week, the Commerce Department is anticipated to unveil its conclusive assessment of third-quarter GDP on Thursday. This will be succeeded by the comprehensive Personal Consumption Expenditures <\/a>(PCE) report on Friday, encompassing income growth, consumer spending, and notably, inflation metrics.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Continue To Grind Higher. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-continue-to-grind-higher-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-22 00:35:25","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-21 13:35:25","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14727","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14627,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-12-15 01:56:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:56:54","post_content":"\n

European banks are sitting on record levels of protective capital buffers, allowing them to pay out historic high dividends to shareholders despite growing economic uncertainty, according to a new report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The European Banking Authority (EBA)\u2019s <\/a>annual review shows the average Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio across 123 banks reached 16% in June, the highest level since reporting began. This key measure of a bank\u2019s financial strength is well above regulatory minimums, giving lenders a comfortable cushion to absorb potential losses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EU Banks Report 2022<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The report attributes the ample capital levels to stagnating lending volumes, which require less capital to be set aside, combined with rising profitability thanks to higher interest rates boosting net interest income.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>FTX EU Launches Website For Withdrawals Approved By Regulators<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bolstered by these positive metrics, EU banks paid out a record \u20ac63 billion in dividends and share buybacks last year. This was a 31% increase over what they had originally budgeted at the start of 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

EBA Review And Caution<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, the EBA<\/a> cautions that the good times may not last as economic growth slows across Europe. Lending is already decreasing in response to higher rates, which could hurt future profitability and asset quality. While problem loans remain near all-time lows for now, risks are emerging in certain real estate markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, while bank shareholders are currently reaping record rewards, clouds appear to be gathering on the horizon. Regulators will likely want lenders to continue building defenses given the uncertain economic outlook rather than ramping up capital returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For bank investors, the next year could see a peak in payouts if challenges materialize. But with capital ratios still at healthy levels, European banks seem well prepared to weather approaching storms.<\/p>\n","post_title":"EU Banks Reward Shareholders Despite Economic Uncertainty","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"eu-banks-reward-shareholders-despite-economic-uncertainty","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-15 01:57:00","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-14 14:57:00","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14627","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14611,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-12-13 21:49:46","post_date_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:46","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks had the highest monthly rally of 2023 in November; the benchmark S&P 500 rose 9%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 11% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 2,900 points higher. The key news for investors in the past month was the November 14 release of the Consumer Price Index, revealing a 3.2% inflation increase in October, lower than anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Encouraging news from this Tuesday revealed that the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.1% every year, aligning with the predictions of economists surveyed by Reuters<\/a>. Similarly, core prices, which exclude fluctuating items like food and energy expenses, also met expectations, rising by 4% annually.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggered a surge in speculation that the Fed has finished its tightening cycle. Most traders, as indicated by the CME Group's Fedwatch tool, think that the central bank has raised interest rates for the last time this year, shifting their focus to potential rate cuts around mid-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Policymakers And U.S. Stocks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Should that prediction materialize, there's a strong likelihood that policymakers will attain their desired \"soft landing\" scenario, despite raising borrowing rates from nearly zero to approximately 5.5% within a mere 15-month timeframe. Growth has remained strong, and the unemployment rate is still hovering below 4% even as inflation has rapidly cooled.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive developments contributed significantly to driving the S&P 500 to its second most successful November since 1980 and it's noteworthy to highlight that the only instance when the index performed better in November was during its recovery post the pandemic in 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> SlingTV Partners With BitPay To Accept Crypto For Subscriptions<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P
S&P 500 rose 9% in November 2023<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Encouragingly, Bank of America's<\/a> Savita Subramanian anticipates ongoing positive momentum for the S&P 500, projecting it to reach a record-breaking 5,000 points by year-end. Additionally, both BMO's Brian Belski and Deutsche Bank's Binky Chadha have established price targets of 5,100 points each.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts Index Review<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

However, certain analysts are expressing skepticism. JPMorgan Asset Management advises investors to remain cautious due to the possibility of a recession, while Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 G\u00e9n\u00e9rale cautions them to brace for a volatile 2024, predicting that the index will fluctuate between nearing its record high, experiencing a decline, and subsequently rebounding.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The focus of investors has shifted now to the conclusion of the Fed's two-day meeting on Wednesday, eagerly awaiting their decision on interest rates, along with the release of the November producer price index (PPI) data. Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"They've (Fed) already taken rates up a lot... they will keep rates up in that range for longer than what the market is currently expecting. Markets do not expect more hikes and are instead focused on rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Had The Highest Monthly Rally Of 2023 In November. What To Expect From The Rest Of December?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-had-the-highest-monthly-rally-of-2023-in-november-what-to-expect-from-the-rest-of-december","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-12-13 21:49:51","post_modified_gmt":"2023-12-13 10:49:51","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14611","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14444,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-23 01:38:54","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:38:54","post_content":"\n

Investors remain optimistic that the market can resume its bullish momentum in December given that the fourth quarter has historically been one of the best three-month stretches of the year for the S&P 500. Investors anticipated the Federal Reserve<\/a> may have already reached its terminal interest rate; however, the primary driving forces affecting stock prices over recent weeks, inflation and interest rates, will continue to hold significant importance in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The
The S&P 500 index's strong advance off its October 27 low continues to make progress<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -  slowed to 3.2% in October, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July 2023. It is also important to say that inflation is significantly lower than 2022 peak levels which were above 9% and because of this many investors anticipate the Fed could begin to cut interest rates as soon as the first half of 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Federal Reserve Officials Banned From Trading Crypto(Opens in a new browser tab)<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

GDP And Corporate Profits<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are also the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term and because of this investors are closely monitoring third-quarter U.S. earnings. Third-quarter earnings season is essentially at the finish line and of the 480 companies that have reported so far, 80% have beaten analysts' expectations. The inflation and interest rates will continue to significantly impact stock prices in December.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

U.S. economic growth(inflation and interest rates) has been resilient year-to-date and Bill Adams, a chief economist for Comerica Bank, recently said the U.S. economy has been much stronger in 2023 than economists expected. Bill Adams suggests that the annual real GDP is anticipated to reach approximately 2.4% this year, a substantial increase from the Federal Reserve's December 2022 dot plot prediction of 0.5%. However, he also warned that the outcome in the upcoming months will decide if the U.S. economy can smoothly achieve a so-called \"soft landing\" without veering into a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Deceleration In United States Economic Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Jeffrey Roach, the chief economist at LPL Financial,<\/a> foresees that most of the negative consequences stemming from higher interest rates have not materialized yet and due to this, he anticipates a deceleration in U.S. economic growth. Market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged at its December meeting currently stand above 90% and any information that the Federal Reserve could start to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024 should be positive for stocks in the short-term period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other side, JPMorgan strategists believe that the risk-reward ratio for numerous stocks is currently unappealing and according to them, restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time which could potentially cause a recession. Considering this scenario, investors worried about a possible U.S. recession can opt for a more defensive strategy in the market. They can enhance their financial flexibility by reducing their stock or cryptocurrency exposure and augmenting their cash reserves.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investor Optimism Rises In November 2023. Does Strong Buying Activity Indicate The Possibility Of Further Gains In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investor-optimism-rises-in-november-2023-does-strong-buying-activity-indicate-the-possibility-of-further-gains-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-23 01:39:12","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-22 14:39:12","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14444","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14305,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:17:51","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:17:51","post_content":"\n

In a rather unforeseen turn of events, Wall Street<\/a> has been sent into a tailspin following the unprecedented cyber hack that targeted the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China's (ICBC) U.S. broker-dealer. The incident, orchestrated by the notorious cybercrime gang Lockbit, exposed shocking vulnerabilities and raised serious concerns about the $26 trillion Treasury market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The hack, described as extensive, plunged ICBC's New York-based unit, ICBC Financial Services, into chaos. The magnitude of the attack was such that even the corporate email system collapsed, pushing employees to resort to Google Mail for communication. Sources reveal that the blackout left the brokerage temporarily indebted to BNY Mellon by a staggering $9 billion, significantly exceeding its net capital.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a desperate bid to salvage the situation, ICBC's Chinese parent injected a cash lifeline into its U.S. unit, enabling it to settle its debt with BNY Mellon. The ransomware attack, which temporarily crippled ICBC's operations, has now ignited a fiery debate within the financial sector about the resilience of the Treasury market, a linchpin of global finance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Google Establishes A Hacking Policy Council Among Others; Cybersecurity And Vulnerability Management<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC, on a mission to recover from the cyber onslaught, has engaged the services of cybersecurity firm MoxFive to fortify its systems. However, the recovery process is anticipated to stretch until Monday, leaving the Wall Street community on edge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In an extraordinary move, ICBC urged its clients to suspend business temporarily and reroute trades elsewhere, creating a ripple effect as other market participants scrambled to assess potential exposure. While the full impact of the attack is yet to be unveiled, market insiders predict that it could cast a dark shadow over the regulatory review of the Treasury market, intensifying scrutiny on cyber threats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Experts underscore the critical need for broader central clearing to mitigate the risk of a domino effect of defaults. As the financial world grapples with the aftermath of this cyber catastrophe, the incident is poised to take center stage at the upcoming Treasury market conference on November 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ICBC<\/a> Financial Services, a mid-sized player by Wall Street standards, now stands as a cautionary tale of the potential havoc that a cyber-attack can wreak on the intricate machinery of the financial markets. As the company races against time to restore normalcy, Wall Street braces for the unsettling revelations that may follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This unprecedented hack serves as a stark reminder that, in the digital age, even the mighty financial institutions are not immune to the perils of cyber warfare. The aftermath of the ICBC hack is a testament to the fragility of the financial ecosystem, raising questions about the adequacy of current security measures in an era where the stakes have never been higher.<\/p>\n","post_title":"ICBC Hack Reveals Shocking Vulnerability of $26 Trillion Treasury Market","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"icbc-hack-reveals-shocking-vulnerability-of-26-trillion-treasury-market","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:05:54","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:05:54","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14305","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":14319,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2023-11-15 18:02:37","post_date_gmt":"2023-11-15 07:02:37","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes<\/a> surged significantly on Tuesday following the release of lower-than-anticipated inflation figures, which increased the belief that the Federal Reserve had concluded its interest rate hikes. The annual rate of inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which monitors the expenses of a variety of goods and services -\u00a0 slowed to 3.2% last month, dropping from September's 3.7% and marking the most subdued rate since July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Additionally promising, Wall Street's prices held steady over the month following a 0.4% increase in September. Core prices, which exclude the unpredictable food and energy sectors, rose by 4%, slightly slower compared to the rate observed in September. The report signifies a significant achievement for the Fed in its battle against inflation but in the upcoming weeks, policymakers will monitor the service category closely, seeking further deceleration as their interest rate increases impact demand.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Inflation
Inflation edges down in October<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Earlier this month, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at the highest level in 22 years. Following this Tuesday's report, prominent analysts and economists indicated only a 1 percent probability that the central bank would increase rates during its upcoming policy meeting in December. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cAcross the board, it\u2019s a good report and I think this will comfort the excessively data-dependent Fed policymakers that policy is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/strong><\/em> Gala is announcing a partnership with Stick Figure Productions to distribute Four Down on the Blockchain<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, analysts from JPMorgan warned that the risk-reward ratio for many stocks remains unattractive currently and restrictive monetary policy is likely to remain in place for some time. JPMorgan analysts anticipate that most adverse effects resulting from increased interest rates haven't manifested thus far. They highlight an upward trend in consumer loan delinquencies and corporate bankruptcies, suggesting that these patterns are probable to persist unless interest rates are lowered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is likely to drive demand destruction, and weakening pricing power and margins for corporates in the coming quarters, and because of this JPMorgan analysts are adopting a defensive stance, maintaining underweight allocations in equities and cryptocurrencies. Nevertheless, they propose an increase in the investment allocation towards gold due to its potential to rise in value during economic downturns, offering a hedge against potential losses in alternative investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gold is commonly regarded as a safe-haven asset, particularly amid economic uncertainty or geopolitical instability. Investors typically turn to gold as a means of preserving value when other assets are considered risky.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Surged Significantly After The Release Of Lower Than Anticipated Inflation Figures","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-surged-significantly-after-the-release-of-lower-than-anticipated-inflation-figures","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2023-11-16 20:00:45","post_modified_gmt":"2023-11-16 09:00:45","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=14319","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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