\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

1 2 3

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

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\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n
\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

ADVERTISEMENT
\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

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Follow The Distributed

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\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

While the ECB has not officially committed to further rate cuts, sources suggest that another reduction in December is possible if the economic data does not improve, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Economic Data And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the ECB has not officially committed to further rate cuts, sources suggest that another reduction in December is possible if the economic data does not improve, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>President Of European Central Bank Believes Crypto Is 'Worth Nothing'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the ECB has not officially committed to further rate cuts, sources suggest that another reduction in December is possible if the economic data does not improve, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

However, Lagarde warned of looming economic risks, including the possibility of new trade tariffs from a potential Trump presidency in the U.S. and the impact of oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>President Of European Central Bank Believes Crypto Is 'Worth Nothing'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the ECB has not officially committed to further rate cuts, sources suggest that another reduction in December is possible if the economic data does not improve, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations, and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively, with effect from 23 October 2024,\" <\/em>ECB announced<\/a> on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lagarde warned of looming economic risks, including the possibility of new trade tariffs from a potential Trump presidency in the U.S. and the impact of oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>President Of European Central Bank Believes Crypto Is 'Worth Nothing'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the ECB has not officially committed to further rate cuts, sources suggest that another reduction in December is possible if the economic data does not improve, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Prices in the Eurozone have reportedly risen by just 1.7%, a contrast to the inflation of the past three years. This has allowed the ECB to shift its focus to economic growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the \"disinflationary process is well on track,\" signaling that the ECB is confident inflation will remain near its 2% target for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations, and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively, with effect from 23 October 2024,\" <\/em>ECB announced<\/a> on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lagarde warned of looming economic risks, including the possibility of new trade tariffs from a potential Trump presidency in the U.S. and the impact of oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>President Of European Central Bank Believes Crypto Is 'Worth Nothing'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the ECB has not officially committed to further rate cuts, sources suggest that another reduction in December is possible if the economic data does not improve, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The ECB's latest decision to cut rates marks a significant shift. For the first time in 13 years, the central bank has implemented back-to-back rate cuts, indicating that the fight against inflation is no longer the only concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prices in the Eurozone have reportedly risen by just 1.7%, a contrast to the inflation of the past three years. This has allowed the ECB to shift its focus to economic growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the \"disinflationary process is well on track,\" signaling that the ECB is confident inflation will remain near its 2% target for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations, and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively, with effect from 23 October 2024,\" <\/em>ECB announced<\/a> on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lagarde warned of looming economic risks, including the possibility of new trade tariffs from a potential Trump presidency in the U.S. and the impact of oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>President Of European Central Bank Believes Crypto Is 'Worth Nothing'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the ECB has not officially committed to further rate cuts, sources suggest that another reduction in December is possible if the economic data does not improve, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Europe's economic struggles have taken center stage as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the third time this year. Despite inflation appearing to be under control, the region's economic growth continues to disappoint, raising concerns about the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB's latest decision to cut rates marks a significant shift. For the first time in 13 years, the central bank has implemented back-to-back rate cuts, indicating that the fight against inflation is no longer the only concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Prices in the Eurozone have reportedly risen by just 1.7%, a contrast to the inflation of the past three years. This has allowed the ECB to shift its focus to economic growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the \"disinflationary process is well on track,\" signaling that the ECB is confident inflation will remain near its 2% target for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations, and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively, with effect from 23 October 2024,\" <\/em>ECB announced<\/a> on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, Lagarde warned of looming economic risks, including the possibility of new trade tariffs from a potential Trump presidency in the U.S. and the impact of oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>President Of European Central Bank Believes Crypto Is 'Worth Nothing'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While the ECB has not officially committed to further rate cuts, sources suggest that another reduction in December is possible if the economic data does not improve, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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  • Economic risks remain, with concerns about the impact of rising oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East, among others.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Europe's economic struggles have taken center stage as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the third time this year. Despite inflation appearing to be under control, the region's economic growth continues to disappoint, raising concerns about the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The ECB's latest decision to cut rates marks a significant shift. For the first time in 13 years, the central bank has implemented back-to-back rate cuts, indicating that the fight against inflation is no longer the only concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Prices in the Eurozone have reportedly risen by just 1.7%, a contrast to the inflation of the past three years. This has allowed the ECB to shift its focus to economic growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the \"disinflationary process is well on track,\" signaling that the ECB is confident inflation will remain near its 2% target for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations, and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively, with effect from 23 October 2024,\" <\/em>ECB announced<\/a> on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, Lagarde warned of looming economic risks, including the possibility of new trade tariffs from a potential Trump presidency in the U.S. and the impact of oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>President Of European Central Bank Believes Crypto Is 'Worth Nothing'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Economic Data And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    While the ECB has not officially committed to further rate cuts, sources suggest that another reduction in December is possible if the economic data does not improve, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

    Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

    U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

    The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

    In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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    \n
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed confidence that inflation will stay near the 2% target.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Economic risks remain, with concerns about the impact of rising oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East, among others.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Europe's economic struggles have taken center stage as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the third time this year. Despite inflation appearing to be under control, the region's economic growth continues to disappoint, raising concerns about the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The ECB's latest decision to cut rates marks a significant shift. For the first time in 13 years, the central bank has implemented back-to-back rate cuts, indicating that the fight against inflation is no longer the only concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Prices in the Eurozone have reportedly risen by just 1.7%, a contrast to the inflation of the past three years. This has allowed the ECB to shift its focus to economic growth. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the \"disinflationary process is well on track,\" signaling that the ECB is confident inflation will remain near its 2% target for the foreseeable future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations, and the marginal lending facility will be decreased to 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively, with effect from 23 October 2024,\" <\/em>ECB announced<\/a> on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, Lagarde warned of looming economic risks, including the possibility of new trade tariffs from a potential Trump presidency in the U.S. and the impact of oil prices due to conflicts in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>President Of European Central Bank Believes Crypto Is 'Worth Nothing'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Economic Data And Rate Cuts<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    While the ECB has not officially committed to further rate cuts, sources suggest that another reduction in December is possible if the economic data does not improve, Reuters<\/em> reported<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Markets are already pricing in the likelihood of additional cuts through early 2025, intending to bring rates back to a \"neutral\" level of around 2%. While inflation has cooled, the economic toll is becoming more evident. High interest rates have stunted investment, and the latest economic data points to more sluggish growth ahead. Industrial output has slowed, and bank lending remains tepid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The ECB's Governing Council committed to bringing inflation down to its 2% target over the medium term. Thursday's 25-basis-point cut lowered the deposit rate to 3.25%, with further cuts anticipated if inflation continues to trend downward and growth remains weak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Despite the recent rate cuts, Lagarde maintains that a recession is not expected and that the economy could still achieve a \"soft landing,\" meaning that growth will slow but remain positive. She emphasized that its approach will be data-dependent and that it will make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","post_title":"European Central Bank Cuts Rates Again, Eyes Growth As Inflation Slows","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"european-central-bank-cuts-rates-again-eyes-growth-as-inflation-slows","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-21 00:57:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-20 13:57:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19212","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":19128,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-10-12 03:04:09","post_date_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:09","post_content":"\n

    Trading has been choppy through the week, with investors adjusting their rate-cut expectations, and seeking new catalysts for a clearer market direction. Investors are now expecting there's an 82% chance the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its November meeting, according to CME's FedWatch tool. However, a few are starting to think the Fed might pause and leave rates unchanged. This shift comes after last week's strong jobs report. Before that, many in the market were expecting a larger 50-basis-point cut in November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The attention of investors is now turning to crucial inflation data on Thursday and the upcoming third-quarter corporate earnings season. The upcoming inflation report will play a crucial role in shaping the outlook for monetary policy. If the data shows that inflation is being kept in check, it could boost confidence among consumers and investors, encouraging more spending and investment. This increased optimism tends to drive economic growth, as people feel more secure about the stability of prices and the broader economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Job Report. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Corporate Profits And Earnings<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices. On a positive note, UBS <\/a>analysts expressed optimism about tech stocks this week, citing the strong outlook for artificial intelligence (AI).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    They encouraged investors to take advantage of the current market volatility as an opportunity to build long-term exposure to AI, which they see as a key growth driver in the sector. UBS analysts led by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas for global wealth management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"While second-quarter results were mixed, we expect tech and AI companies to \"beat and raise\" for the September quarter. We continue to favor the semiconductor space and mega-caps for AI exposure, and recommend investors consider structured strategies or a buy-the-dip approach for quality AI stocks.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    UBS sees continued investment in AI driving growth through 2025. Major tech players like Alphabet and Meta have emphasized that the real risk lies in underinvesting in AI, not overspending. Despite the focus on AI, analysis shows that the overall capital expenditure by big tech is still below historical levels, suggesting there\u2019s plenty of room for further investment in this space.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Are Focusing On Key Inflation Data Due Thursday And The Upcoming Q3 Earnings Season","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-are-focusing-on-key-inflation-data-due-thursday-and-the-upcoming-q3-earnings-season","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-12 03:04:18","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-11 16:04:18","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19128","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18866,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-25 19:45:40","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:40","post_content":"\n

    U.S. consumer confidence experienced its sharpest decline in three years, signaling growing concerns about the economic outlook. The drop reflects rising uncertainties surrounding inflation, job stability, and future economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Conference Board's consumer confidence index dropped to 98.7 in September, down from 105.6 in August, missing the 104 forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"September's decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers' assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is based on a monthly survey of about 3,000 households and assesses consumers' views on current economic conditions as well as their expectations for the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The sharp decline suggests that consumers are becoming more cautious, potentially signaling slower economic growth in the months ahead. This dip could also affect retail spending, which is a key driver of the U.S. economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/strong><\/em>Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Benchmark Fed Funds Rate<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    This negative news came after the Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5% last week, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Fed officials stated last week that inflation is no longer a pressing threat, giving them more flexibility to focus on other economic goals, such as boosting employment and encouraging investment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, on Tuesday, Governor Michelle Bowman advocated for a gradual loosening of monetary policy, diverging from the prevailing stance of the Federal Open Market Committee. She noted that inflation is still a concern despite recent improvements and suggested that the labor market may not be as weak as the data implies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    It is also important to mention that Bowman was the only dissent to the FOMC's decision to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points at its meeting last week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Consumer Confidence Sees Sharpest Drop In Three Years","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-consumer-confidence-sees-sharpest-drop-in-three-years","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-25 19:45:44","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-25 09:45:44","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18866","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18795,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-21 04:42:02","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:02","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street's main indexes advanced after the Federal Reserve kicked off its monetary easing cycle this Wednesday with a half-a-percentage point reduction and forecast more interest rate cuts were on the horizon. The positive news is that the Fed forecast rates to fall by another 50 bps by the end of 2024 year, and unveiled macroeconomic projections that analysts say reflect steady growth and lower unemployment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Federal Open Market Committee lowered the benchmark Fed funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%, the first reduction since March 2020, signaling confidence in the progress made against inflation. Fed officials are confident that inflation is no longer a major threat, allowing them to support other economic objectives, like boosting employment or encouraging investment. This move reflects the bank\u2019s belief that the economy can handle lower borrowing costs without overheating.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"US<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Growth And Inflation Risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    This balance also reassures investors that growth is possible without spiraling inflation risks, which can further support stock market advances. It is also important to mention that lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs for consumers, making things like mortgages, car loans, and credit card debt cheaper. This encourages spending, which fuels economic growth and benefits companies' bottom lines, leading to stock market gains. Bret Kenwell, investment analyst at eToro, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Markets are acting well to yesterday's messaging from the Fed. They wanted to hear we weren't falling into recession which Chair Powell reassured that the economy is on good footing. A soft landing is still in play; that's still the default expectation. However, there's still clearly some concern that the labor market is going from a period of softness to weakness\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, traders are now betting on a 61.1% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming November meeting. Despite this, some analysts are not positive and according to them the strong signal from the Federal Open Market Committee is probably that they are more concerned about the risks facing the outlook for the US economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Scotiabank's head of capital markets economics, Derek Holt, said that even though the Fed has started easing, past rate hikes are still having effects. This could put pressure on businesses in the upcoming quarters, potentially leading to layoffs or cost-cutting measures, which would hurt economic growth.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The Federal Reserve Initiated Its Monetary Easing Cycle By Implementing A Half-Percentage Point Interest Rate Cut","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-federal-reserve-initiated-its-monetary-easing-cycle-by-implementing-a-half-percentage-point-interest-rate-cut","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-21 04:42:11","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-20 18:42:11","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18795","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

    The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18399,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-08-29 04:14:24","post_date_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:24","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Tuesday after the latest data showed that consumer confidence rose to 103.3 in August from 101.9 in July, above a reading of 100.8 expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The August print hit the highest since February which had a positive influence on stocks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at the Conference Board said that consumers were more optimistic about both current and future business conditions compared to July, though concerns about the labor market increased. Positive information is that inflation expectations for the next twelve months eased to 4.9% from 5.3%, the lowest since March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This leads to greater confidence in the economy, encouraging spending and investment, which in turn supports economic growth. At the same time, lower inflation expectations could further strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    It is also important to mention that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently said that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022. Jefferies US Economist Thomas Simons said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"The decline in inflation expectations is a big driver behind the improvement in confidence. However, some economic analysts became more anxious about the labor market after the unemployment rate jumped to near a three-year high of 4.3% last month.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investors are eagerly awaiting July's Personal Consumption Expenditure data, set to be released on Friday, for further insights into the potential trajectory of interest rate cuts. According to CME Group's Fed Watch tool, traders are now betting on an interest rate cut of either 25 or 50 basis points in September but UBS Global Wealth Management raised the odds of a U.S. recession to 25% from 20%, citing weakness in the labor market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street Rises As Key Consumer Confidence Gauge Shows Gains","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-street-rises-as-key-consumer-confidence-gauge-shows-gains","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-08-29 04:14:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-08-28 18:14:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18399","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17776,"post_author":"1","post_date":"2024-07-15 03:48:46","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:46","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street's main indexes advanced this Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that inflationary pressures were likely easing. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated remarks submitted to the Senate Banking Committee Tuesday, that recent inflation data have shown \"modest further progress,\" and that \"more good data\" would strengthen policymakers' confidence that inflation was returning to their 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released on July 11 and if the inflation figures are lower than expected, it could signal an immediate interest rate cut or suggest that the Federal Reserve will implement additional rate cuts in the near future. Market bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed in September were at 74%, up from around 70% on Tuesday and 45% a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch. Raymond James Chief Market Strategist Matthew Orton said<\/a> in an interview with Reuters:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"There's still three CPI reports that we're slated to get between now and September, so it's hard to say conclusively that he's leaning towards September or if it's going to be pushed off. My expectation for CPI is that it will continue to see the easing trend with respect to inflation. But I don't think the decline we're going to see for June is going to be as strong as what we saw in May.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related:<\/em><\/strong> U.S. Central Bank May Need To Keep Interest Rates Higher For Longer. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Central Bank And Inflation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said this Wednesday that the central bank is not just focused on inflation and that policymakers closely watch the situation in the U.S. labor market. He concluded that the U.S. is still on track for a so-called soft landing, where the Fed's inflation target is met without a significant increase in the unemployment rate. This outcome seemed improbable when inflation reached a 40-year high in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Nasdaq Composite rose 1% to 18,608.2 intraday, while the S&P 500 gained 0.7% to reach 5,614.8. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5%, climbing to 39,479.8 while it is important to mention that the technology and materials sectors led the gains, with financials being the only sector to decline. Following the progress of Wall Street's main indexes seen in the first half of the year, investors are still optimistic about the prospect of another robust period ahead. This optimism is rooted in the anticipation that a decelerating economy will result in a gentle landing rather than a full-scale recession.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Wall Street's Main Indexes Advanced After Fed Chair Powell's Remarks","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"wall-streets-main-indexes-advanced-after-fed-chair-powells-remarks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-15 03:48:49","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-14 17:48:49","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17776","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17676,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-04 20:33:10","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:10","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street's main stock indexes rose on Tuesday, driven by gains in Tesla shares and mega-cap growth stocks. However, trading volumes were thin ahead of the July Fourth holiday and the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Shares of Tesla surged 8.8% to their highest level since the start of January after the EV maker reported a smaller-than-expected 5% drop in vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, pushing the consumer discretionary sector to the top of the S&P 500 sector indexes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Positive information is that the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said this Tuesday that recent economic data represented \"significant progress.\" However, he warned that the Fed needed to see more before changing its monetary policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Dogecoin To Be Accepted As Payment At Tesla Superchargers<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Economic Weakness And Central Bank<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that he sees some signs of economic weakness and that the central bank's goal is to get inflation down without stressing the labor market. However, Genter Capital Management CEO Dan Genter said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"What the Fed really wants to see is a further click up in unemployment and then a slowdown with regards to new job creation. The recent moderation in inflation should be a green light for the Fed to start considering rate cuts.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed an increase in job openings in May, following significant declines over the previous two months. However, layoffs also rose amid a slowdown in economic activity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    This data marks the beginning of this week's series of U.S. jobs reports, culminating in the highly anticipated release of June nonfarm payrolls on Friday. These reports will be crucial for investors in determining whether the U.S. labor market remains robust despite the high interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    With recent data indicating a renewed moderation in inflation and some signs of economic weakness, market participants are maintaining their expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by year-end. According to LSEG's FedWatch data, there is a 69% probability of easing beginning in September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Investors are currently divided over the sustainability of the market rally in which the S&P 500 index has risen 14.75% in the first half of the year but according to Barry Bannister, chief U.S. equity strategist at Stifel, the S&P 500 could correct to 4,750 points by the end of third quarter.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Tesla Gains Boosted Wall Street's Main Stock Indexes. Interest Rates Outlook And Job Report Remain In Focus","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"tesla-gains-boosted-wall-streets-main-stock-indexes-interest-rates-outlook-and-job-report-remain-in-focus","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-04 20:33:13","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-04 10:33:13","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17676","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17353,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:51:27","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:27","post_content":"\n

    Wall Street's main indexes opened mixed on Tuesday as investors wait for an important inflation report that could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts. The consumer price index (CPI) is set to be released before the market opens on Wednesday, and investors will be closely monitoring these figures, along with the Federal Reserve's policy statement scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The consumer price index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by consumers for a basket of goods and services and it is a key indicator of inflation, which affects the purchasing power of money. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the headline consumer price index (CPI) is projected to rise by 0.1% in May, down from the 0.3% increase observed in the previous month. It will be the second gauge of U.S. inflation in June, following Friday's hotter-than-expected wage growth numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Although the U.S. central bank is widely anticipated to maintain its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range for the seventh consecutive meeting, investors will be keenly watching the statement and comments from Chair Jerome Powell for any hints about future plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Investors Wait For A Crucial Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Federal Reserve Rate Cut And Election<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), predicts that there will be one Federal Reserve rate cut after the election, likely in December. However, he also suggests that a spike in unemployment this summer could make a September cut possible. Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, added<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Investors are playing it safe but we will continue to see all-time highs, and you don\u2019t want to make emotional decisions. The S&P could set up another all-time high, CPI could come in weaker than expected, and the Fed could sound optimistic that at least one rate cut could occur before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Even amidst reports of persistent inflation and fears of prolonged higher interest rates by the Federal Reserve, stocks have remained relatively stable in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists credit this resilience to an unexpectedly robust set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. Investors are currently navigating a complex narrative: on the one hand, the U.S. economy remains resilient, but on the other hand, inflation and rising interest rates pose potential challenges for the stock market.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Wait For An Important Inflation Report That Could Influence On Decision For Interest Rate Cuts From The Federal Reserve. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-wait-for-an-important-inflation-report-that-could-influence-on-decision-for-interest-rate-cuts-from-the-federal-reserve-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:51:32","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:51:32","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17353","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17407,"post_author":"18","post_date":"2024-06-21 19:01:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:26","post_content":"\n

    In a twist that's caught many off guard, the world's major central banks are tapping the brakes on what was widely anticipated to be a year of significant monetary easing. The optimism that permeated financial markets at the close of 2023, with visions of lower borrowing costs dancing in investors' heads, has largely evaporated in the face of stubborn inflation and resilient economic growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As reported by Reuters<\/a>, this shift in sentiment marks a stark departure from the \"start your engines\" mentality that prevailed just six months ago. Now, central bankers from Washington to Frankfurt are adopting a more cautious \"hold your horses\" approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The story began with high hopes. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted last December that rate cuts were \"a topic of discussion,\" setting the stage for what many believed would be a synchronized global move towards cheaper credit. Fast forward to today, and that eagerly awaited shift has largely fizzled out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Steps By The European Central Bank And Bank of Canada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    While some modest steps have been taken\u2014the European Central Bank and Bank of Canada have dipped their toes in with initial cuts this month\u2014these moves seem more like fulfilling old promises than charting a bold new course. The mood in central banking circles has cooled considerably as policymakers grapple with inflation that's proving more persistent than expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Canada Forces CryptoCom To Delist USDT; Saying It Constitutes 'Securities And Or Derivatives'<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    In the U.S., the Fed's latest projections show a dramatic scaling back of rate cut expectations. Where three cuts were once on the table for 2024, now only a single quarter-point reduction is anticipated. Powell, speaking at a recent press conference, emphasized the significance of getting the timing right. \"When we do start to loosen policy, that will show up in significant loosening in financial market conditions,\" <\/em>he stated. \"You want to get it right.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Across the pond, the Bank of England is holding steady, with most economists eyeing August for a potential first move. This patience comes despite headline inflation tumbling close to the 2% target, as services inflation and wage growth remain elevated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Economic Data And Political Uncertainty.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Meanwhile, the European Central Bank, true to its earlier warnings of \"bumps in the road,\" is navigating not just economic data but political uncertainty. The prospect of a snap election in France has added another layer of complexity to their decision-making.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Looking ahead, central banks face a delicate balancing act. On one hand, they're wary of declaring premature victory over inflation. On the other, concerns are growing that prolonged restrictive policy could push unemployment higher and strain an already fragile recovery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    As Nick Bunker of the Indeed Hiring Lab cautioned, \"The labor market has seemed invincible for much of the past two years, but its armor can't last forever.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    While the immediate future may not bring the interest rate relief many had hoped for, the longer-term outlook remains focused on a gradual return to more accommodative monetary policy. Central banks are playing a careful game of chess with inflation, making measured moves to avoid any missteps that could derail progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The key for investors and borrowers alike will be patience and adaptability. As this year has already shown, the path to lower rates is rarely a straight line. Those who can navigate the twists and turns stand to benefit most when the tide eventually turns.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Inflation's Persistence Keeps Central Banks In Wait-And-See Mode","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"inflations-persistence-keeps-central-banks-in-wait-and-see-mode","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-21 19:01:29","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-21 09:01:29","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17407","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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