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\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n
\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

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\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

Twitter Instagram Youtube LinkedIn Facebook RSS
ADVERTISEMENT
\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

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Follow The Distributed

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n
\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

Most Read

Subscribe To Our Newsletter

By subscribing, you agree with our privacy and terms.

Follow The Distributed

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ADVERTISEMENT
\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n
\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Earnings Gain And S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Gain And S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Gain And S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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\n

Growing doubts that the Federal Reserve<\/a> will be less dovish than investors had hoped pushed Treasury yields higher, while investors wait for another round of earnings reports to gauge the health of the economy. Electric vehicle maker Tesla is scheduled to report results after Wednesday's closing bell, along with other major names like T-Mobile US, IBM, ServiceNow, and O'Reilly Automotive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Gain And S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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U.S. equity indexes declined on Wednesday, as risk-off sentiment spread across most sectors, driven by continued gains in government bond yields. U.S. Treasury yields climbed throughout the day, with the 10-year yield rising by two basis points to 4.23%, marking its highest level since late July. The two-year yield also gained 2.8 basis points, reaching 4.07%, its highest since mid-August.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Growing doubts that the Federal Reserve<\/a> will be less dovish than investors had hoped pushed Treasury yields higher, while investors wait for another round of earnings reports to gauge the health of the economy. Electric vehicle maker Tesla is scheduled to report results after Wednesday's closing bell, along with other major names like T-Mobile US, IBM, ServiceNow, and O'Reilly Automotive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Fed Chair Jerome Powell Pushed Back Firmly Against Market Speculation Of Imminent Rate Cuts.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Gain And S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Analysts are estimating a 4.1% year-over-year earnings gain for S&P 500 companies in the third quarter as of Wednesday, based on results from 120 of the companies and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG data. That's barely changed from last week's estimate for 4.0% growth but the latest estimate is still down versus the Oct. 11 estimate for 4.9% growth, based on LSEG data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In economic news, U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in September, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. However, indicators typically linked to stronger sales are starting to emerge. It is also important to mention that mortgage application volume in the US declined for the fourth consecutive week to its lowest point since July amid lower purchase and refinancing activities. National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago, and continued job additions to the economy.\"<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oxford Economics predicts a modest recovery in home sales beginning in the fourth quarter. While sales are expected to pick up next year, the firm cautioned that the high interest rates and the impact of hurricanes Helene and Milton could push back this anticipated rebound.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Equity Indexes Declined On Wednesday, As Widespread Risk-Off Sentiment Weighed On Most Sectors","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-equity-indexes-declined-on-wednesday-as-widespread-risk-off-sentiment-weighed-on-most-sectors","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-10-26 06:51:26","post_modified_gmt":"2024-10-25 19:51:26","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=19259","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":18512,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-09-08 04:42:36","post_date_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:36","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August, marking its strongest first eight months since 2021 and the second-best performance of the century. According to Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold, this year's rally in stocks has pushed the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio to levels last seen in the dotcom bubble and he warned investors to be cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 has surged more than 18% from January to August<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ned Davis research chief U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold said that for instance, the S&P 500 forward P\/E ratio of 21.6 ranks in the top 9% of all monthly readings since 1983, and the only times it was higher were during the dotcom bubble in 1998-2001 and after the pandemic shutdowns in 2020-2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast, this year, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has dipped by about 7.3 basis points. Although it climbed to a peak of 4.7% in April, it never surpassed its 2023 high of just over 5%. According to Ed Clissold, this decline in yields has benefited stocks, as lower yields translate to higher bond prices. U.S. equity strategist Ed Clissold added:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"In order for stocks to be attractive versus other asset classes, not only do long-term bond yields need to remain low, but the Fed needs to follow through on its telegraphing of multiple rate cuts before year-end.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Federal Reserve's Policy Decisions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Federal Reserve's<\/a> policy decisions will be crucial. If inflation remains under control, the Fed may adopt a more dovish stance, which could support further equity gains. Continued economic expansion could bolster investor confidence, but signs of slowing growth or a potential recession might trigger caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Because of this, corporate performance for Q3 will also set the tone for investor sentiment. Strong earnings could fuel optimism, while disappointing results might dampen enthusiasm. Even though the market has shown strong performance, the final quarter is likely to be marked by a mix of optimism and caution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors may focus on securing gains while remaining vigilant to any emerging risks and a balanced approach, considering both the opportunities and risks, will be essential for navigating the market in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 Has Gained Over 18% From January To August. What Can We Expect In The Final Quarter Of 2024?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-has-gained-over-18-from-january-to-august-what-can-we-expect-in-the-final-quarter-of-2024","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-09-08 04:42:42","post_modified_gmt":"2024-09-07 18:42:42","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=18512","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17954,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-26 22:32:26","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:26","post_content":"\n

The second-quarter earnings season has shifted into high gear, with Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla set to report their results after the bell on Tuesday. The big question is if tech-related megacaps can maintain their recent strong earnings growth and whether this growth is starting to extend to other sectors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Corporate profits are emerging as the big driver of what the market is likely to do in the near term, and if earnings results fall short of expectations, the stock market's reaction could be severe. Conversely, positive earnings can drive investor optimism, leading to increased buying activity and higher stock prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Investors are closely monitoring second-quarter U.S. earnings and it is important to say that earnings for the quarter are now estimated to have increased 11.5% in the quarter, according to LSEG data Tuesday. That's up from growth of 9.6% estimated on July 12 and this latest forecast is based on results from 102 of the S&P 500 companies and estimates for the rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Wall Street's Main Indexes Fell As Alphabet's Projections For Rising AI Costs Dented Most Mega-Cap And Chip Stocks<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

LSEG Report On S&P 500 Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

LSEG also reported that of the 102 S&P 500 companies that have reported quarterly results so far, more than 80% of them have beaten expectations. Phil Blancato, CEO of Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"You're looking at a scenario where (Big Tech) names are going to determine the direction of the market... So, if those names disappoint in any way whatsoever, markets will struggle. Their valuations are expensive and we could run into a problem if they don't meet expectations.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the realm of economic data in the United States, this week's releases include the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. This report will be critical for assessing the outlook for monetary policy, especially in light of the recent downward trend in inflation and indications that the labor market is starting to cool.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The positive news is that bets of a 25-basis-point interest-rate cut by September have shot up to nearly 94%, from nearly 60% last month, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll indicates that the Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates twice this year, with cuts expected in September and December.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Investors Shifted Their Focus To This Week's Corporate Earnings. What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"investors-shifted-their-focus-to-this-weeks-corporate-earnings-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days-2","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-26 22:32:30","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-26 12:32:30","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17954","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17874,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-07-24 13:40:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:40:56","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are struggling this Wednesday, driven down by declines in major chip and tech stocks while analysts point to potential stricter U.S. trade restrictions on China as a significant factor behind this downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to a Bloomberg report, the Biden administration has warned its allies that it might impose the toughest trade restrictions on China if companies like Tokyo Electron and ASML Holding NV keep providing advanced semiconductor technology to the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Nasdaq has weakened more than 2% this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

However, David Rosernberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research, believes Wall Street's losses on Wednesday are unlikely to last. Growing speculation about a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with rising expectations of former President Donald Trump's return to the White House after the attempt on his life, has given stocks a significant boost in recent sessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp; P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors And BofA Global Research <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A recent BofA global research survey also showed that world investors remain bullish, with sentiment fueled by Federal Reserve rate cuts expected this year and into 2025. Inflation projections continued to stabilize in July, with 62% of investors now expecting lower CPI over the next 12 months, up from 57% in June and 56% in May.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As U.S. election concerns gained prominence, fund managers were asked which policy areas they believe will be most affected by the November election. Of those polled this month, \u201ctrade policy is viewed as the most likely area to be impacted by the US election per 48% of FMC investors, followed by immigration (15%), and geopolitics,\u201d BofA Global Research said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time rising geopolitical angst, especially in the U.S., put a damper on global growth expectations. It is important to mention that  27% of portfolio managers expect weaker economic growth in the coming year. This compared to 6% in June and 9% in May and was in sharp contrast to April, where a net 11% of managers looked for stronger world growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some economic analysts believe the U.S. economy is already starting to see signs of a slowdown and according to them, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. High rates encourage saving over spending and make the debt more costly, and companies that have a bigger credit or other loans with variable interest rates could be in a difficult situation. Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity and job creation.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Major Chip And Tech Stocks Drive Down S&P 500 And Nasdaq","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"major-chip-and-tech-stocks-drive-down-sp-500-and-nasdaq","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-07-24 13:41:01","post_modified_gmt":"2024-07-24 03:41:01","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17874","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17584,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-29 18:31:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:19","post_content":"\n

Wall Street's major indexes remained relatively flat on Wednesday, experiencing volatile trading as investors reassessed their positions in non-technology sectors ahead of a forthcoming U.S. inflation report. This Friday's personal consumption expenditure report is significant for investors. According to LSEG's interest rate <\/a>probabilities, investors currently see a 62% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut in September, and about two cuts by the year-end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) produces a weekly survey of stock market sentiment among its members and according to the latest survey, the outlook remains positive. Investors Intelligence (II), a global investment service, also publishes a weekly sentiment survey which is also closely monitored, and, at extremes, may be useful as a contrarian measure of sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the latest data from Investors Intelligence (II), 61.5% of investment advisors are bullish, marking the highest reading since March 27, 2024, when it reached 62.5%. Investors Intelligence also reported that 18.5% of advisors are bearish, while 20% call for a correction. The bull-bear spread is at 43.0% and it is important to say that the spread's 2024 high was at 48.4% on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related<\/em><\/strong>: 30% Digital Mining Energy Tax; White House Advisors Push For Regulation<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Index Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Specific periods when the bull-bear spread plunged into negative territory, such as December 2018 and March 2020, did a very good job of signaling extreme bearishness that occurred around major market lows. Currently, the S&P 500, at approximately 5,470, is just below its record intraday high of 5,505.53 and traders are closely watching the bull-bear spread in case it continues to worsen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group said that positive second-quarter earnings and benign inflation data could encourage more rotation from tech to sectors that have lagged this year and he does not expect that \"bears\" will take control of the market movement. BofA Securities equity and quant strategist Jill Carey Hall noted last week that while BofA's private clients continued buying equities, hedge funds and institutional clients were selling. This behavior might indicate profit-taking rather than an anticipation of a market correction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the 11 GICS sectors, Hall reports that clients mainly purchased stocks in seven of the major groups, with the largest inflows going into tech and communication services for the third consecutive week. Notably, communication services have experienced the longest buying streak at 12 weeks. Conversely, financials saw the largest outflows for the second consecutive week.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Most Investment Advisors Are Bullish On The US Stock Market. What To Expect In The Coming Weeks?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"most-investment-advisors-are-bullish-on-the-us-stock-market-what-to-expect-in-the-coming-weeks","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-29 18:31:24","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-29 08:31:24","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17584","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17450,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-20 22:33:19","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:33:19","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at new record highs on Tuesday as investors digested the latest economic data and mixed comments from Federal Reserve officials. The S&P 500 index rose 0.3% to 5,487; the technology-heavy Nasdaq ticked higher to 17,862, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.2% and closed at 38,834 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq closed at record highs this Tuesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Financials and technology companies were the top-performing sectors, while communication services experienced the largest decline. US stock markets are closed this Wednesday for Juneteenth but according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist of CFRA Research in New York, even though investors are playing it safe, we will continue to see all-time highs in the upcoming days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>The S&amp;P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Earnings Growth And US Stocks <\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Robust earnings growth has fueled the US stocks and positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions. The US economy remains resilient and regarding the latest economic news, retail sales in the US edged up 0.1% last month following April's downwardly revised 0.2% decline.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another positive information is that US industrial production rose more than expected in May as manufacturing output returned to growth after two months of declines. However, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said this week that even though recent inflation data has been \"encouraging,\" the process of lowering inflation may take longer than expected. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said :<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"The data suggest an economy with demand and supply coming into better balance, as required to restore price stability. However, this process may just take more time than previously thought. It is too soon to determine whether inflation is durably on a path back to the 2% target.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Joseph Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research (NDR), forecasts that there will be only one Federal Reserve rate cut this year, which certainly poses a risk for the US economy. This situation could negatively affect stock prices, and it is also important to mention that high interest rates make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more attractive compared to stocks. As a result, investors may shift their money away from stocks, leading to a decrease in stock prices.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Closed At Record Highs This Tuesday.\u00a0 What To Expect In The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-closed-at-record-highs-this-tuesday-what-to-expect-in-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-20 22:35:56","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-20 12:35:56","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17450","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":17270,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-06-10 19:27:55","post_date_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:55","post_content":"\n

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes reached record highs this Wednesday supported mainly by technology stocks as markets digested economic data that could support a much-expected start to the Federal Reserve's policy easing cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The tech-heavy index Nasdaq reached record highs this Wednesday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The May private payrolls report released this Wednesday is the latest indication of a loosening labor market, potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts this year. Additionally, a report on Tuesday revealed that job openings in April fell to their lowest level in over three years. Jack Janasiewicz, a portfolio manager at Natixis Investment Managers Solutions in Boston said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"We're seeing the economic data starting to ease up a little bit and the repercussions for that is that you're seeing the pressure on rates come off the boil a little bit mixed in with the potential for weaker economic data, which is a pretty good recipe for the bond market.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, market participants now estimate a nearly 69% probability of a rate cut in September, up from around 50% just last week. However, it is important to say that investors are now looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls report, scheduled for release on Friday, to gain a comprehensive understanding of the labor market and the interest rate path.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Monthly Non-Farm Payroll Data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The monthly non-farm payroll data in the U.S. is a critical economic indicator that provides insights into the employment situation but also reflects economic growth, consumer spending potential, and business confidence, making it a closely watched report by investors, policymakers, and economists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The upcoming monthly non-farm payrolls data is expected to reveal a slowdown in job additions for May and according to economic analysts, many companies could face liquidity problems in the upcoming months. The current high interest rates encourage saving over spending and increase the cost of debt which could be particularly challenging for companies with substantial credit or variable interest rate loans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher borrowing costs can hurt corporate profits and discourage businesses from borrowing to invest in new projects, which can hurt economic activity. This situation could adversely affect stock prices and make fixed-income investments, such as bonds, more appealing than stocks.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Indexes Reached Record Highs This Wednesday. Could A Pullback Be Imminent?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-sp-500-and-nasdaq-indexes-reached-record-highs-this-wednesday-could-a-pullback-be-imminent","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-06-10 19:27:59","post_modified_gmt":"2024-06-10 09:27:59","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=17270","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":16825,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-05-13 17:33:44","post_date_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:44","post_content":"\n

Despite reports of persistent inflation and concerns that the Federal Reserve <\/a>may maintain higher interest rates for longer than anticipated, stocks have largely held steady in recent weeks. Wall Street strategists attribute this resilience to a stronger-than-expected set of first-quarter earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the first-quarter U.S. earnings season nears its end, projected earnings growth for S&P 500 companies continues to rise. Overall S&P 500 earnings growth is now seen at 7.8% year-over-year, based on results from 424 of the S&P 500 companies as of Tuesday and estimates for the rest, according to LSEG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

More than 78% of companies beat Wall Street earnings expectations and among the biggest improvements in earnings growth for the quarter is the communication services group, whose first-quarter earnings have increased almost 45% year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also important to mention that net profit margins are pacing for 11.7% growth in the first quarter, above the five-year average of 11.5% growth and higher than the same period a year ago. Jean Boivin, the head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Higher interest rates usually hurt U.S. stock valuations. Instead, strong Q1 earnings have supported stocks even as high rates and lofty expectations raise the bar for what can keep markets sanguine.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"S&P<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Citigroup's First-Quarter Earnings Drop 27% On Reorganization Costs<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Optimistic strategists on Wall Street contend that robust earnings growth has fueled the S&P 500\u00a0 index's approximately 9% rally this year and may propel stocks even further. Citi Bank's equity strategy team led by Scott Chronert wrote in research this week that positive Q1 earnings results provide further support to the ongoing bullish view toward S&P 500 fundamentals, even as we navigate the Fed and underlying economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Results are still expected from several high-profile U.S. retailers, including Walmart WMT.N, which is due to report next week but despite earnings results investors will continue to focus on remarks from several Federal Reserve officials, looking for signs of lower future interest rates. Since Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinted against rate increases and nonfarm payroll data came in softer last week, investors are gaining confidence the central bank could begin its easing cycle soon.<\/p>\n","post_title":"The first-quarter U.S. Earnings Season Showed Further improvements. What To Expect From The Upcoming Days?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"the-first-quarter-u-s-earnings-season-showed-further-improvements-what-to-expect-from-the-upcoming-days","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-05-13 17:33:48","post_modified_gmt":"2024-05-13 07:33:48","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=16825","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15865,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-03-14 08:04:56","post_date_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:04:56","post_content":"\n

U.S. stocks ended sharply higher on Tuesday after the Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% last month after climbing 0.3% in January. Year-on-year, headline and core CPI came in at 3.2% and 3.8%, respectively and it is important to say that both readings were only 10 basis points hotter than some analysts expected.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Consumer<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Looking at individual categories, energy prices surged by 2.3%, gasoline jumped by 3.8%, and airfares increased by 3.6%, catching attention. However, there are positive notes as services and shelter, previously seen as barriers to a sustained cool-down, decreased to 0.5% and 0.4%, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we observe a continuing downward trend in inflation, the gradual advancement witnessed over recent months is expected to prompt the Fed to seek further assurance that inflation is steadily returning to its 2% target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expectations in the market regarding the timing of the Fed's initial rate cut mostly stayed the same and the CME's FedWatch Tool reported that there is a 66.2% probability of a cut of at least 25 basis points in June, a slight decrease from 71.7% in the previous session.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut said that the US economy continues to be healthy and from his perspective as a consumer, employee, and investor, he would rather have a strong economy and slightly elevated interest rates than a weak economy that requires stimulus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related:<\/em><\/strong> Wall Street's Main Indexes Tumbled As Hot Inflation Data Dampened Early Rate-Cut Hopes<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

S&P 500 Advanced To Record High<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The S&P 500 advanced to a record high supported by the optimism and ended at 5,175.06 points, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.53% at 16,264.08, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 230.43 points, or 0.59%, to 39,000.09. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB's chief economist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"While inflation pressures have eased since peaking in 2021, small business owners are still managing the elevated costs of higher prices and interest rates, The labor market has also eased slightly as small business owners are having an easier time attracting and retaining employees.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, some economic analysts said that the central bank became too focused on inputs after misreading inflation in 2021 and they warned that the Fed risk a recession if it cut rates later than June. Simultaneously, the increase in geopolitical uncertainties presents an extra hurdle and amplifies the possibility of unexpected risks in both markets and economic outcomes and the recommendation for investors is to take a defensive approach in the months ahead.<\/p>\n","post_title":"U.S. Stocks Ended Sharply Higher After CPI Data Met Expectations","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"u-s-stocks-ended-sharply-higher-after-cpi-data-met-expectations","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-03-14 08:05:04","post_modified_gmt":"2024-03-13 21:05:04","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15865","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"},{"ID":15560,"post_author":"14","post_date":"2024-02-28 15:43:23","post_date_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:23","post_content":"\n

This week, Goldman Sachs analysts adjusted their year-end S&P 500 index target upward to 5,200 points from the previous 5,100. The revised target represents approximately a 4.5% increase over current levels and it is important to mention that David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, attributed the target adjustment to higher profit estimates. David Kostin, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, said<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Our upgraded 2024 EPS forecast of $241 (8% growth) stands above the median top-down strategist forecast of $235 (6% growth) and reflects our expectation for stronger economic growth and higher profits for the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors, which contain 5 of the \u201cMagnificent 7\u201d stocks.\"<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Higher profit estimates suggest that companies are expected to generate stronger earnings in the future. Since stock prices are often influenced by expectations of future earnings, an anticipated increase in profitability can lead to higher valuations for stocks in the index.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

See Related: <\/em><\/strong>Bitcoin and Ethereum Technical Analysis<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Future Performance Of The S&P 500 Index<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Positive profit revisions provide a fundamental basis for optimism about the future performance of the S&P 500 index and this can certainly boost investor confidence in the broader market outlook. Nevertheless, the three major indexes on Wall Street started the week with declines, as persistent inflation took the spotlight amid mixed earnings from two prominent retailers (Walmart and Home Depot).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The S&P 500 started the week with declines<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Additionally, concerns lingered among investors regarding the potential for sustained higher interest rates, fueled by last week's data. Sam Stovall, CFRA's chief investment strategist, cautioned investors who viewed the current equity dip as a buying opportunity, stating that the persistence of inflation is likely to prompt the Federal Reserve to proceed more cautiously in reducing its key short-term interest rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some Fed officials also expressed caution about inflation and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he needed more evidence inflation pressures are easing. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said \"There is more work to do\" to ensure stable prices, despite remarkable progress.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, the escalation of geopolitical uncertainties introduces an additional challenge and heightens the potential for unforeseen risks in both markets and economic performance. Considering all of these factors, the perspective is likely to stay cautious as long as interest rates remain significantly restrictive and the looming presence of geopolitical risks persists.<\/p>\n","post_title":"Have Goldman Sachs Analysts Become Overly Optimistic By Revising Their Year-End S&P 500 Index Target Upwards From 5,100 To 5,200 Points?","post_excerpt":"","post_status":"publish","comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","post_password":"","post_name":"have-goldman-sachs-analysts-become-overly-optimistic-by-revising-their-year-end-sp-500-index-target-upwards-from-5100-to-5200-points","to_ping":"","pinged":"","post_modified":"2024-02-28 15:43:36","post_modified_gmt":"2024-02-28 04:43:36","post_content_filtered":"","post_parent":0,"guid":"https:\/\/www.thedistributed.co\/?p=15560","menu_order":0,"post_type":"post","post_mime_type":"","comment_count":"0","filter":"raw"}],"next":false,"total_page":false},"paged":1,"class":"jblog_block_13"};

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